31st May 2022 > > Unicorns.

tl;dr

Unicorns and other stuff.

Market Snap (at time of writing)

Market Wrap

Risk assets starting the week on a positive note. I bought a little of Wall Street early this morning (NOT investment advice) as it feels like we are going to have a good couple of days.

Global events are most likely to upset my general bonhomie.

Occasional Series – Has the world gone mad?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff116eda-e009-11ec-baab-53d14c642149?shareToken=e4aed695992fc2f61d883000cb77c4a6

I quote:

“Ministers have been urged to intervene to prevent trips being ruined as airports and airlines struggled to cope with a sharp increase in demand.”

…

What business is it of the government to organise the operations of private companies?

What business is it of the government to ensure that individuals get their preferred holidays?

The stupendous over reaction to Covid and the associated deliberate government intervention and control seeps ever more into our daily lives.

…

Thankfully all those people queuing for their flights to go abroad know that ther flight cost has been subsidised by an average £400 reduction in the green taxes paid on their energy bills.

Occasional Series – Unicorns and non-fungible emojis (NFEs)

Strange things happen in the Olde Forge, a venerable establishment with the well-deserved mantle of the UK’s most remote pub.

I know from personal experience how far away it is - a whole day and more to get there from CCC Towers in Stoke Newington.

Bus, train, stay at my Mum’s the night before, early hours taxi to Luton, plane to Glasgow, bus, breakfast (finally) in The Counting House (tip top pub), hang around for a couple of hours, five hour train journey to Mallaig sometimes regretting one didn’t use the previous couple of hours to get sandwiches (no first class option or even a buffet carriage on that train), then run fast in the hope of making the boat over to Inverie as the sailors will not wait for you.

But when you do finally cross Loch Nevis, you always find some very unlikely and very amazing people, and an unbelievably beautiful place if you love mountains.

That is the town of Inverie at the edge of the Loch. Only a few houses, all dotted in a long row on the shoreline. Here there be musicians, creatives, and those who like remoteness from our daily lives.

There are not too many investment bankers to be fair, but I am trying to adapt during my visits to the very first overseas office of Curious Cryptos Ltd.

…

Breaking news is that Inverie is home to a Unicorn and may also be the birthplace of non-fungible emojis (NFEs).

Stay tuned for updates.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – More on-chain analysis

Readers of the CCC yesterday now know that the common misperception that whales feed off fish only to the detriment of the latter has been proven false.

Indeed, it might be the case that this relationship works the other way round.

Analysis by Glassnode shows that the aggregate balance of BTC held by wallets with less than 100 BTC in them increased by 80,724 BTC during the recent sell-off. As Glassnode pointed out that amount is “remarkably similar to the net 80,081 BTC liquidated by the LUNA Foundation Guard.”

Glassnode have also commented on action by long-term holders, those one would expect to be stronger hands than more recent converts.

Here the picture is a little more mixed.

There has been significant selling of BTC by this cohort, realising losses of 27% on average:

Undoubtedly that is a worrying sign that is also a little at odds with the fact that the total holdings of all long-term wallets returned to its all-time high of over 13mm BTC.

So, fish are feeding off the whales, and some long-term holders are feeding off each other.

Glassnode see this in a positive light, commenting on long-term holders thus:

“Unless significant coin redistribution occurs, we can therefore expect this supply metric to commence climbing over the course of the next 3-4 months, suggesting HODLers continue to gradually soak up, and hold onto supply.”

And as for the 27% loss incurred by a sub-population of long-term holders:

“This week, we have seen the average LTH spent coin locking in a 27% loss compared to the point of coin acquisition. Such events in the past have only occurred during the final capitulation lows of bear markets such as 2015, 2018 and briefly in March 2020.”

Experienced traders know that capitulation events are hard to identify - unless your name is Harry Hindsight - but they are simply the best times to make out like a bandit.