11th July 2025 > > New ATH, oh yes!

tl;dr

I know you are only interested in the new ATH, so a few thoughts on that today, and nothing else.

Market Snap 

Market Wrap

What can I say, apart from that we all knew this breakout was coming. No-one knows where it will end.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – New ATH

Which is always nice to see.

Reputable price aggregators are reporting the new ATH as between $118,591 and $118,850. The small differences do not matter. They arise because, unlike stocks for instance, BTC trades on hundreds of exchanges around the world, some more reputable than others, all with differing liquidity. The most important number is $118k for now, but I suspect that will quickly be superseded.

The spot BTC ETFs have been signalling this for a while. Yesterday’s inflow was a massive $1.2bn. Allied with just one day of outflows in the last twenty-two trading days for the ETFs, a break to the upside (all other things being equal) was simply a matter of time. We discussed part of this just a couple of days ago (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/8th-july-2025-rejoice-prices-scams).

The key take-away is that on-chain movements of BTC are much less useful for analysis than before. BTC balances at centralised crypto currency exchanges have been diminishing for a while, adding to the supply problem, but the real action is between the OTC desks acting on behalf of the spot ETF issuers, and the whales. Increasingly, the financial return from BTC is being tied up in legal TradFi contracts that do not involve the actual movement of coins, once access to them is held by a custodian such as Coinbase. This is how the voracious appetite for the spot BTC ETFs has been satisfied by early investors, many of whom who not unnaturally had an exit target for some of their stash around the psychologically important level of $100k. Now that has been seriously breached, and those sellers have been exhausted of their supply, I doubt there is any more significant selling until we get to $250k. Time will tell of course.

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A quick scan of the major news outlets in the UK suggests that little attention is being paid to cryptos. The Times mentions BTC twice today, dedicating just one paragraph to it, whilst the Daily Torygraph mentions it not at all. I find no reference in the Gruaniad, though I have only very limited access, but then I don’t pay for the BBC either. The Financial Times also appears to ignore BTC today, but its default position is anti, exactly what one would expect. The FT reports heavily on crypto crashes, but conveniently ignores it at most other times.

This restricted media coverage is indicative of the key difference between the build-up to the highs in 2022 at around $70k, and today at close to $120k – there is a lack of retail involvement, and all the FOMO that existed around that. Given the subsequent drop in price post the 2022 highs to around $15k, those that got burned back then are unlikely to ever return, for obvious reasons. This rally, contrary to the one in 2022, is built on a much more sustainable basis, for its institutional buying that is driving us forward. There is always a cohort of speculators in all investments, but that is a much smaller percentage when looking at institutions rather than at retail. This rally is real.

…

The UK’s economy contracted last month for the second month in a row, which comes as no surprise to anyone. Even Rachel from complaints Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, previously recognised that tax increases are an impediment to growth. Having talked down the prospects for the UK, added record-breaking tax rises onto employers, and ensured another round of large tax rises aimed at the “wealthy” later this year, that small 0.1% contraction is a rather better outcome than it might have been.

Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 rose yesterday to an all-time high mirroring BTC. How can that be?

The UK’s debt is on an unsustainable path. It won’t be resolved by the annual rise in tax rates that we will see over the next few years, for behaviour by both individuals and companies is already being impacted in a negative way. The economy is likely to shrink further, and the tax take will diminish regardless of any increases in tax rates, or any increase in its scope.

The stock market is clearly signalling an impending reduction in interest rates, and the relaunch of QE, partly to offset the taxes being targeted at the “wealthy” (QE’s objective is to make the rich richer, and the poor poorer). Hard assets will always respond positively to a loosening of monetary constraints.

From a UK investors’ perspective, it is difficult to spot anything which could be a better investment than BTC, but that is merely my opinion, and I am undoubtedly biased. You certainly should never make any decisions based on what I think.