13th July 2025 > > Central bankers & alts.
- Mark Timmis
- Jul 13
- 4 min read
tl;dr
Jerome Powell’s reign may soon be over, to everyone’s benefit, apart from those still hoping for an alt-season like we had before.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed, is distinguished only in the sense that he isn’t the liberty-denying Mark Carney, nor the hapless Andrew Bailey (*). I find it remarkable that he has been given license to manipulate interest rates across the curve, thus having a far greater impact upon our lives than any politician could ever hope to achieve, whilst also not being answerable to the electorate. When he isn’t manipulating the interest rate market, he is in charge of building a new HQ for the Federal Bank, which is coming in at a total cost of … wait for it … $2.5bn.
Yep, just for a building from which civil servants will work at home. I have some portacabins for sale if it helps.
…
The fractious relationship between Powell and Trump is no secret. We already know that Powell will be replaced in May 2026, and the new incumbent will immediately embark on slashing interest rates, finally killing once and for all any pretence that central bankers are independent of their political masters.
What could be interesting is that this building fiasco might possibly have damaged Powell so much, he steps down this week. If so, all risk markets are going to fly. Leveraged shorts best be worried.
Occasional Series – Interregnum
I know, I know, another interregnum in a very short space of time, and very inconvenient to boot with all this lovely BTC price action.
I get it, but it’s that time of year. Next week is my annual road trip to visit and investigate a mediaeval site or two (more if Janey is feeling indulgent) in the Home Counties, one of life’s true pleasures. You may be shocked to hear this but sometimes, just sometimes, there is stuff that is more important than cryptos.
I do hope you will once again forgive this transgression of mine. Talk to y’all next weekend.
Curious Cryptos’ meme corner
h/t The Milk Road (https://themilkroad.beehiiv.com/subscribe?ref=o5CmCFhBAK)
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Altseason
There is a serious message behind the meme above.
We talked about this a little in Friday’s CCC (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/10th-july-2025-new-ath-oh-yes). The notable feature of this rally towards $120k and beyond is that retail is just not involved. Perhaps I should qualify that statement a little – retail speculators are not involved. Retail investors will always be a part of the crypto landscape.
Outside of BTC, there are some serious altcoins that may or may not survive, but these are projects backed by some big (institutional) money with a clearly defined plan to address what are perceived to be deficiencies in the centralised world. In time we will find out whether the plan, and the execution of that plan, brings success and rewards to those investors. ETH, XRP, LINK, and SOL, amongst others, are probably the ones to look at in that light.
Almost all of the rest of the alts, in my humble opinion, do not cut the mustard on any long-term view. But I say almost because there is another bunch of coins that could be very promising. I am sure you have your own list which might be similar to mine. Outside of these two cohorts, the vast majority are likely driven by the chancer’s mentality. Don’t get me wrong – plenty of short-term gains can be made playing in that space, but a vastly greater number of losses than gains are incurred by investors. The CC Treasury does get involved at times, but that is with play money purely for speculative purposes. It is not an adult investing strategy.
…
BTC price action is always reflected in the price of alts. In every previous bull market, some alts performed spectacularly well, at least for a while. Most crashed and burned later on, teaching many one of the hard lessons of crypto life – paper profits are no more than just that. Investors understand that rule, setting out in detail the prices for laddered take profits and stop losses, and executing them according to the plan, with no emotion involved. Meanwhile, speculators chuck money around without really knowing what they are doing, which in general is not good for them, nor the wider market.
With little evidence of retail speculators getting involved in this rally, all of those hoping for an altseason as we saw during the last two cycles will have to remain patient, perhaps for a very long time. That could change very quickly of course, and I might end up looking foolish for telling you this, but the CC Treasury has been rotating out of the small alts of late, and into the chunkier ones. Let me remind you, no-one should ever make any decision based upon what I think, but unless you are convinced that retail speculators are coming back, and in size, hanging onto that low cap alt portfolio might be a mistake you come to rue.
Now is not the time to fumble your bags, a topic to which we shall return at a future date.
Just think about it, is all.
…
(*)
Comments