30th April 2026 > > Peter Schiff, Michael Saylor, & the Fed.
- 3 hours ago
- 3 min read
tl;dr
Peter Schiff vs Michael Saylor. Whose camp are you in? The change of Chair of the Fed offers an opportunity.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
Trump’s latest threat of an extended blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil back above $100pb, an environment which is not conducive to positive price action. Spot BTC ETF flows have turned negative all this week after a nine-day winning streak, which is disappointing.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Peter Schiff, how wrong can you be
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Michael Saylor, how right can you be
"I think all of the uncertainty is really just opportunity. Well, I think Bitcoin's going to rally. Like, I think there's a lot of capital flowing into Bitcoin right now, and at the rate that digital credit is forming and at the rate – you saw our buy this morning, we bought the entire supply last week, then Strive announced a massive buy, then there’s a massive bank credit coming on-line. All the big banks, J.P. Morgan, Citi, Schwab, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, they are all coming on-line. So, I think the formation of, you are talking about between 20 and 100 billion dollars’ worth of credit formation in the next 12 months. And there's only 10 billion dollars of Bitcoin naturally available for sale. So, I think that we're setting up a massive supply shock. There ought to be a rally in BTC. I think that'll catalyse a rally in all the Bitcoin treasury companies. I think it will cause a rally in demand for digital credit. I think there'll be a rally in bank credit. I think there's going to be a Cambrian explosion. Just the past 12 weeks I've seen more innovation in this space than in the previous 5 years."
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The Fed
Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to replace the hapless and hopeless Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed, has been accepted for nomination. His appearance before the Senate should be soon, and needs to be soon, as Powell’s tenure ends at the end of May.
The choice of Chair is always a political appointment. Indeed, Trump picked Powell during his first term. Powell proved less compliant to Trump’s wishes than Trump expected, leading to a very public schism between the two, initiated by Trump. That was a big mistake, for it encouraged Powell to try to pretend to bang the drum for central bank independence, one of the world’s greatest mythologies foisted upon us mere plebs by the technocratic elite.
The key question over Warsh concerns his views on the wisdom or otherwise of raising interest rates when faced with an oil crisis – spoiler alert: it would be a disastrous decision (*). We know Powell would have eagerly accepted that opportunity in the forlorn belief that the mullahs would take notice and re-open the Strait. Will Warsh?
I note that Powell has also said he will stay on as a governor:
“I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.”
Oh dear, remember what the Fed did during Covid under your leadership, Powell? The central bank is not, and never has been, independent of its political masters.
Let’s hope Warsh is a more competent Chair, helping to create a macro environment conducive to risk assets.
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(*) Oil price rises are inflationary in the short-term, and deflationary about nine to twelve months hence by acting as a dampener on economic activity. Interest rate raises are inflationary in the short-term because of increases in mortgage rates and companies putting up their prices to compensate for the increased cost of capital, and deflationary about nine to twelve months hence by acting as a dampener on economic activity.
Of course, Powell isn’t the only one who knows this is true. Our own Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, has publicly stated that he will soon be forced into doubling up the short-term inflationary impact of oil price rises, and doubling up on the medium-term deflationary impact of oil prices rises.
Madness, utter and sheer madness.
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