8th November 2024 > > US politics & cryptos.

tl;dr

How important were cryptos to these elections? You might be surprised at the answer to that question.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Several breaches of $76k to the upside yesterday and today leaves with another ATH at $76,850. The reason is clear- the spot BTC ETFs saw a massive inflow of $1.4bn yesterday.

The US will soon start enacting crypto-positive legislation and regulation which will draw in new investors from the institutional side. This wall of money flowing into BTC is only just getting started.

Curious Cryptos’ meme corner – Trump’s doorbell cam

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – US politics part 1

Now that we have clarity on the political situation in the US, it is time to assess how big a part cryptos played in the end result. We will start with the Hall of Shame we discussed the day before election day (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/4th-november-2024-us-politics), to assess the outcome for some senior members of Warren’s anti-liberty and anti-freedom army. Starting with the serpent’s head, Warren herself.

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

It was never going to be easy for John Deaton to claim the biggest scalp. Warren got nearly 60% of the vote matching her performance in 2018. I think that’s a tick in the “crypto was irrelevant to the outcome” box.

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

Not a popular man at CC Towers, Sanders also took 60% or more of the vote. I wouldn’t normally give any credence to anything he ever says, but just for once he has provided some insight which will help us later to properly assess the crypto impact on this election:

“It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.”

Congressman Brad Sherman (D-CA)

It seems this result has yet to be declared, but with a thumping majority in a Californian district last time out, we are not expecting any surprises here.

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Oh, happy days! Just lovely – Brown has fallen. As Chair of the Senate Banking Committee his influence in preventing crypto-friendly legislation was legion. The new chair will likely take a very different stance in support of freedom, democracy, and liberty. Do not underestimate the importance of this specific outcome.

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

Graham was not up for re-election this time but is now nervously looking over his shoulder after the defenestration of Brown.

…

It seems that the crypto influence was only effective in just one of these battles, a battle which was fought with half a billion dollars of advertising money.

Overall, the crypto effect was small, but we will take that one very important win.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – US politics part 2

Back to that comment from Sanders.

In general, one might expect that crypto supporters tend to be wealthier, and better educated than the naysayers. If your educational attainments are few, and your wages do not allow for the accumulation of savings or investments, discussions about the benefits of decentralisation for the whole of humankind are likely to appear frivolous and superfluous.

Trump’s vote share of those earning between $25k (the official poverty line in the US) and $75k (the median salary in the US) dwarfed Harris’ representation. Likewise, amongst the wealthier population, and especially the very top echelons, Harris was the standout winner. Hence Sanders put-down aimed at both Harris and Biden, though this phenomenon is not restricted to the US, for we see it across Europe and the UK too.

This means those with no interest in cryptos broke for the pro-crypto party, and those that might reasonably be expected to consider cryptos in their votes broke for the anti-crypto party. Sadly, w e cannot claim to see any evidence that cryptos played a significant role in these elections, with the notable exception of the Moreno victory.

On the upside, that gives us something to aim for going forward.