4th November 2024 > > US politics.

tl;dr

You cannot escape from US politics this week of all weeks.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

It could be a long week ahead, with the polls predicting a very tight race raising the possibility of recounts, legal challenges, and the risk of insurrection. None of this would be good for anyone.

Polymarket has a 58%/42% split in favour of Trump over Harris. Normally betting markets are more accurate than pollsters, but the decentralised nature of Polymarket almost certainly points to a bias and a skew amongst the cohort of punters who believe, rightly or wrongly, that a Trump victory will be better for the crypto markets.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – US politics

Tomorrow is election day in the US, which has the potential to dramatically change the direction of travel for crypto regulation and legislation in the US.

Scrapping SAB 121, which mandates a 100% capital charge on the value of crypto assets custodied by banks on behalf of their customers, would remove one of the biggest stumbling blocks to institutional adoption of BTC in the US. Likewise, removing Gensler as Chair of the SEC, voluntarily or otherwise, and replacing him with a crypto enthusiast, would also be a game changer. The safe progress of several key pieces of legislation that have already been passed, or are awaiting votes in one or both houses, would give business the certainty it does not have today.

But aside from the presidential election, there are other elections which are of real interest to us.

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

The biggest beast to topple would be Warren, precipitating the demise of her anti-freedom and anti-liberty army. Her opponent is lawyer and XRP advocate, John Deaton, whose crypto credentials need no introduction. Anything other than a win for Warren would be seismic.

With Warren twenty-three points ahead in the polls it’s a tall order for John, but the world is rooting for you, mate.

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

‘Nuff said.

He should fall for everyone’s benefit, but he won’t.

Congressman Brad Sherman (D-CA)

Sherman simply hasn’t got a clue:

“I look for colleagues to join with me in introducing a bill to outlaw cryptocurrency purchases by Americans, so that we nip this in the bud.”

Attempting to beat a Democrat in California is never going to be easy. Larry Thompson has but a tithe of the spending power of Sherman who garnered nearly two-thirds of the vote last time out. We applaud Larry’s bravery and courage, but sadly we expect a routine Sherman win.

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

As Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, a position Brown abuses to prevent cryptos from becoming mainstream, taking Sherrod’s scalp would be a massive boon for the crypto industry.

Ohio's $467 million U.S. Senate race is now the most expensive non-presidential contest on record, according to AdImpact, an amount which feels to be on the obscene side. It does suggest that Brown’s opponent Bernie Moreno, businessman, has a decent stab at delivering more than a simple flesh wound to the crypto naysayers.

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

In a departure from the more typical partisan nature of crypto supporters versus naysayers, Graham is a disappointment to all libertarians and freedom fighters:

“All too often crypto is used to move illicit funds for drug cartels, criminal gangs, terrorist groups and kidnappers.”

Those tired old tropes, which are simply not true.

Unfortunately, his South Carolina Senate seat is not up for re-election this time around, but I include him here so that he knows he is in real trouble going forward unless and until he performs a screeching U-turn, and quickly.