3rd April 2025 > > Trump & tariffs.

tl;dr

It’s all about Trump, which is perhaps not unexpected..

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Three points on the value of 10-years in a couple of days, and an on-going stock slide is not a particularly encouraging background for crypto prices.

Occasional Series – Mumbai

In our never-ending quest to launch a second overseas office for CC Ltd. I have been advised that Mumbai might be an appropriate place. After three days. I am not yet convinced. WiFi access is not as ubiquitous as one might expect. This is me finally getting back online and pleased to be doing so.

Our publication schedule will be disrupted for the next month or so, as we explore some rather more rural alternatives within India, that might prove to be more suitable than Mumbai.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Trump Tariff Wars

Following yesterday’s so-called “Liberation Day” markets are quite clear they are not happy about the uncertainty unleashed by this latest iteration of the TTWs, but I think there is more nuance in the current price action. I know I have said this before, and I was wrong, but this is probably the end of the measures that Trump is prepared to take. The faux justification for the rates levied – based upon a 50% charge of perceived tariffs placed upon the US – suggests to me that once Trump had presented that detailed chart of each individual country’s tariff, it makes it difficult to come back for more but makes it very easy to come back with reductions. Perhaps I am too naïve and too hopeful for the future.

In times past, I do believe that this disruption to the world’s trading relationships would have been the trigger for much greater ructions, and much greater volatility. Investors who were caught blindsided by government interference in markets for risk assets both after the GFC and the self-inflicted pain of shutting down society for Covid, are not going to make that mistake again. Central banks worldwide will now always manipulate stock markets and bond markets upwards and onwards at any sign of impending financial disaster. Which prevents such a disaster happening in the first place. Some may say that is a good thing, and one can argue that point, and perhaps win it, in the short-term. I think the implications long-term are frightening, but we can deal with that another day.

The dollar is selling off as well, which I believe is also one of Trump’s aims, though that seems to be a contrarian point of view for now. This has the unfortunate impact of reducing the value of our crypto bags, and any other asset valued in dollars, in our own currency, in the short-term.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – An alternative view

I think you can safely assume that I am on James’ side of the argument.