24th May 2026 > > The quantum threat and a crypto-friendly executive order.
- 7 hours ago
- 4 min read
tl;dr
Glassnode has published an insightful analysis into the amount of BTC at risk from a quantum attack. A crypto-friendly executive order shines light on TradFi’s anti-competitive practices that help shore up executive bonuses.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
Weekend stock markets are getting excited about Trump’s promise of a deal to end the Iran war “shortly”. With the mullahs still in place, and IRGC in an even more powerful position than before it looks like we are now in a worse position than before February 28th in exchange for a lot of individual suffering and pain. What a stupid thing to do. I know that in the scheme of things, the eight days I spent trapped by the war in Dubai and Riyadh on my return from Sri Lanka, and the thousands of pounds it cost, pales into insignificance in comparison to others’ misfortune, but I can’t help but take it personally.
Occasional series – WFH
Or rather, FWFH as it should be known – the first F can be the imperative or the present participle (it’s your choice) of a word that cannot be printed in a family friendly publication.
Truly, A.I. is learning, and learning well. Any senior manager in the Civil Service is sadly very familiar with an excuse like this:
It is an admission that no work is being done but framed in a positive way.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The quantum threat
Glassnode have released an analysis of the BTC that is potentially at risk when quantum computers become viable:
The key issue is whether the public key to a wallet is visible on the blockchain or not. If it is, a quantum computer will likely be able to derive the private key and therefore be able to sign a transaction to spend that BTC.
In the early days, transactions were all P2PK (Pay to Public Key) thus exposing the public key. Current methodology is to use P2PKH (Pay to Public Key Hash) which shows a cryptographic hash of the public key, preventing a quantum computer from deriving the private key unless and until funds are spent. If you use a Ledger Nano as your wallet solution, any transfer of BTC results in two transactions. The first is the one you have initiated, and the second is the transfer of any remaining BTC to a new address with a different private key derived from the same seed phrase, thus ensuring your funds are quantum safe.
In total, just over 6mm BTC is currently stored in wallets for which the public key is exposed. That’s a whopping 30% of total supply potentially at risk from a quantum attack.
Glassnode have broken this down further into two categories:
“The first is structural exposure: outputs whose script type reveals the public key by design. The second is operational exposure: coins that may have been protected initially, but where address reuse, partial spending, or custody behaviour has already made the public key visible while BTC remains tied to it.”
The headline numbers are that nearly 2mm coins are structurally exposed whilst just over 4mm are operationally exposed. The former consists largely of Satoshi or Satoshi-era coins for which the private keys have been lost, deliberately or otherwise, including the famous tranche now rotting away in a Newport rubbish dump, figuratively at least.
The operationally exposed coins can be made safe with good wallet management. If you have any doubts about your personal stash, simply send a very small amount to an exchange using your Ledger Nano, and your remaining coins from that wallet immediately become immune to a quantum attack. A simple method to lower your anxiety levels.
What is very interesting is the breakdown of these operationally exposed coins – this is going to surprise you. 1.7mm of these coins are held by centralised cryptocurrency exchanges, mostly Binance and Bitfinex:
The key takeaway is that less than 10% of all BTC will likely remain at risk from a quantum attack absent any protocol changes to freeze those coins.
It’s not ideal, but an effective boost in supply of nearly 2mm coins simply dilutes the value of all other coins by less than 10% in the long-term, which is hardly an existential threat.
This assumes that a malicious actor (dictator Xi and his murderous henchmen spring unbidden immediately to mind) would attack BTC rather than say hack into all foreign government’s emails and databases. There is likely far more politically and economically valuable low‑hanging fruit for a quantum attacker than less than 10% of the BTC supply.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Executive Order on Fintech and Crypto Payment Access
Trump has signed a new Executive Order on Fintech and Crypto Payment Access:
This executive order directs multiple federal regulators to streamline rules that effectively act as a moat to protect TradFi from fintech and non‑bank competition, rules that explicitly target the crypto industry. The order tasks the Federal Reserve with a 120‑day review on granting crypto organisations direct access to Reserve Bank payment services and requires agencies to produce plans within 180 days to simplify bank charters, deposit insurance, and related approvals for innovative financial companies.
I know that there are many people whose instinctive reaction to the name Trump is to assume that anything he does is bad. As I keep reminding you, the CCC remains fiercely apolitical – our only concern here at CC Towers is whether actions or words are beneficial or not to the crypto revolution.
There is no doubt on which side of that judgement this order falls. TradFi has been desperately trying to torpedo the CLARITY Act by claiming the competition provided by stablecoins will put the financial world at risk, a hyperbolic claim if ever there was one. This executive order is aimed squarely at helping stablecoin issuers to compete with TradFi for depositors’ funds, a neat means of putting TradFi firmly back in its place for its ill-treatment of retails clients funding fat executive bonuses. That can only be a good thing, regardless of who signed that bit of paper.
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