24th May 2025 > > Bananas, stablecoins, & tariffs.

tl;dr

Don’t believe the hype about the Banana Zone. Stablecoins are set for a major impetus. Trump’s Tariff Wars are back, allowing me to indulge one of my favourite pastimes, having a dig at one of my favourite bogeymen, for the first time in what feels like simply ages.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

The broad market sell-off triggered by another Trump outburst is touched upon below.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Banana Zone

You are going to see a lot more of this type of thing:

For the record, I don’t think we are about to enter the banana zone, it will come later, but there are plenty of people who are already getting excited by the prospect.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Stablecoins

Despite the slower than expected progress of the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins), occasioned by the controversy of Trump’s hosting of a private dinner for buyers of the TRUMP meme coin, the potential economic benefits that accrue from issuing a stablecoin are too juicy to ignore.

The giants of TradFi – J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and others – are planning on forming a joint consortium to launch a dollar denominated stablecoin.

This is unalloyed good news.

This new coin will be backed by more than 100% of cash or cash-like instruments (short-dated Treasuries) using tried and battle-tested custodial processes, reducing the risk of failure to a negligible number. State-of-the-art technology will be employed to ensure a seamless user experience with close to zero, or actually zero, transaction costs. Holders will share in the rewards of the underlying collateral. There will be no need for anyone to use Trump’s own USD stablecoin, USD1, which will wither and die. The immense superiority of public blockchains over private ones will be proven indisputable. Finally, this initiative will help to embed the crypto revolution into some of the largest banks, and their customers.

Crypto adoption wherever you look.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Trump’s Tariff Wars

The Trump Tariff Wars are back with a sudden and unexpected 50% surcharge on imports from the EU.

All risk assets took a tumble after Trump claimed that the EU is not negotiating in good faith. What he means of course is that France is not negotiating in good faith, for the EU is nothing more than a construct to assuage German guilt, and to prevent African farmers from competing with their French equivalents. The UK has a long and inglorious history of failing in negotiations with France, so our recent capitulation handing over sovereignty with regard to agricultural and veterinary laws whilst paying to do so was simply par for the course, and fully expected by all parties.

The last time England did well out of a treaty with France was in 1420 with the Treaty of Troyes, which made a legal and binding commitment that the French crown would pass to Henry V or his successor upon the death of King Charles VI. Unfortunately, Henry V died before Charles VI. It is true that his son Henry VI was crowned as King of France in 1431 but, as history records, Henry VI was a weak and divisive king, of whom the French took advantage. Under duress, in 1444 Henry VI signed the Treaty of Tours which handed over lands historically owned by England to France, specifically the province of Maine, and which included a handsome payment to the French for the privilege (where did we hear of a similar situation recently?) Though the Treaty of Tours was supposed to end what we now know as the Hundred Years’ War, Normandy and other lands were subsequently conquered by the French, breaching that treaty. By 1453, just Calais remained in England’s possession, and the French have never looked back.

Suffice to say that Trump’s claim that the French are negotiating in bad faith is a truism that has held throughout the ages – it comes as no surprise to anyone.

But I do wish this tariff nonsense would stop.