24th August 2024 > > Technocrats & scammers.

tl;dr

Technocrats and scammers. It’s hard to tell the difference.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

The shorts are building, which is very pleasing to see. If this rally has legs, at some point the short squeeze will propel us much higher.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Technocrats wield far too much economic and political power

The perils inherent in allowing “data-driven” technocrats to manipulate the short-end of the yield curve have been laid bare once more.

The most globally important monthly economic statistic is the change in NFP (non-farm payrolls) in the US. It is a number that is closely watched by all city traders, for the Fed puts great store on it. It varies a lot, but I would guess 150,000 up or down is probably about the average over the long-term, with some very much larger outliers. It is supposed to be a measure of economic well-being outside of the agricultural sector, which is why it is so important, or it has had importance assigned to it by the Fed.

Perhaps you would expect that a data point of such import would be designed to be robust.

Think again.

NFP is derived from a survey of a very small number of companies over a two-day period once a month. The data is then “adjusted” in a manner akin to Thomas Piketty’s treatment of data i.e. totally subjective, and utterly non-transparent.

The Fed’s justification for the recent manipulation of interest rates higher than the market would countenance has taken a credibility hit with the announcement that NFPs have been overstated by over 800,000 in the twelve months to March, with more downward revisions to come, no doubt. Two successive 50bps cuts look to be on the cards (Citigroup agrees with me) proving that Jerome Powell, chair of the Fed, and his submissive sidekicks have no greater insight than you or I into what the “correct” level of interest rates should be.

Leave it all up to the markets, and we will all be better off for it.

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This is a rare example of where blockchain technology is hampered in solving a big problem. The political heft behind deliberately moving political decisions to technocrats who do not have to answer to the electorate is too great to withstand. Jean-Claude Juncker called it right when he said “We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”

The response has been to hand over responsibility to those who do not answer to the common man.

It is shameful and cowardly. It will not last.

But blockchain technology does allow each and every one of us a little respite from such shenanigans in the meantime.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – An old school scam

Beware emails like this:

That bit that says “Authorize the claim transaction …” is the bit that authorises the transfer of all the cryptos held in your wallet to these feral scammers, whose fate is already destined. They will all die very painfully, and very, very slowly in front of their mocking and cheering loved ones.

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Right on cue, I received another scam email almost immediately afterwards:

I think I can guess what the “Synchronise” button will do.

I know you don’t need me to tell you this, but always be very sceptical of any unsolicited contact, be it in the crypto world or the analogue world.