23rd May 2025 > > New ATH, a potential price cap, & FIFA.

tl;dr

You should dampen your expectations for the banana zone in the very near future. Or, perhaps not?

FIFA is an embarrassment, but its ruthless urgency of forever pumping its own executives’ bags bodes well for the crypto industry.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Spot BTC ETF flows remain strong with seven consecutive days of inflows totalling $3.2bn with nearly a billion of that just yesterday, representing a net drain of over 8,000 coins from circulation with just 450 added by the miners. Surely no-one can be surprised that we say another ATH just shy of $112k yesterday with a very strong probability of further price discovery over the weekend.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – This isn’t the banana zone

Not for the uninitiated

Deribit’s BTC options market implies that a lot of BTC spot holders have been selling WOTM (way out of the money) call options at a strike price of $130k and above. To be clear, those calls were WOTM at the time of the deal. Less so now, obviously.

Market makers aim for a delta-neutral and gamma-neutral book (I told you this bit of today’s commentary is not for the uninitiated). Being on the other side of the spot holders’ trade means that the dealers are increasingly gamma-positive from $115k up. As the price rises, that gamma-positive position (as the second derivative of the price, and the first derivative of delta – call me if you need a more detailed explanation, but you will find a simple one below) ensures that the dealers’ delta increases dramatically as gamma grows. To hedge the ever-changing delta, the dealers will be selling BTC spot, and in size.

It is an inaccurate science trying to properly judge everyone’s gamma and delta positions from just one decentralised exchange, but it is largely the only information we have. If this analysis is correct, it will take some work for the price of BTC to exceed $115k-$120k, at least in the near future.

However, if we do clear that hurdle, I retain the right to flip the headline of this section of today’s CCC.

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If you understand the concepts of speed and acceleration, which are the first and second derivatives of distance with respect to time (more or less, if we ignore changes in direction), then you understand delta and gamma. Sometimes, finance is just easy, but some practitioners try to make it seem otherwise.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – FIFA

Commonly perceived as one of the world’s most corrupt organisations – it is extraordinary that neither Sepp Blatter nor his successor Gianni Infantino have been incarcerated forever more in Alcatraz, in my opinion – FIFA and its subsidiaries, such as the English F.A., can rarely make a sensible decision. Pitting biological males against biological females on a football pitch, whilst banning those who might question such an obviously harmful act, is as egregiously dangerous as putting male boxers in the same ring as female boxers, if not more so.

It is with mixed feelings that I report that an organisation that should be a force for good in the world, but consistently falls back on merely being a conduit for dodgy money moving into dodgy bank accounts (in my opinion) is now embracing the crypto revolution:

https://www.avax.network/about/blog/fifa-selects-avalanche-to-power-its-fifa-blockchain-for-footballs-web3

FIFA claims it is “developing its own Layer 1” on top of Avalanche (which would make it a Layer 2, but honesty and accuracy are not attributes that you would normally ascribe to FIFA’s executive management, in my opinion) to:

“… streamline operations, optimize user experience, and deliver consistent, interoperable digital products to its fan base of over five billion people.”

Nothing ever happens within FIFA unless Infantino sees an immediate return in his multitude of Swiss bank accounts (in my opinion) so in no way is this move motivated by an improvement of the fan experience.

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On the other hand, given FIFA’s ruthless attention to pumping the bags of its executive management team, this news can only be seen as an endorsement of the financial potential of moving commercial operations into the decentralised world.

I will not spend time trying to understand what it is that FIFA is trying to do exactly (it has little concern for one of the all-time greats of the football world, Watford F.C., who finished only two places outside of the top half of the Championship last season) because its activities have no bearing or import in my life, except for the World Cup. But really that competition is owned by us as fans, not FIFA in its public persona as money grabbing crooks, exemplified by the ludicrous Club World Cup which no real football fan has any interest in at all.

But it does point the way for other commercial organisations to follow, and for that reason alone we should take note. An accumulation strategy would have been the wiser choice.