22nd April 2022 > > Glassnode analytics.

tl;dr

Glassnode is looking pretty positive right now.

Market Snap (at time of writing)

Market Wrap

The broader sell-off in risk markets put a stop to what looked like a developing short squeeze yesterday afternoon.

Wall Street has been oscillating in a range of about 800-1,000 points for the last few weeks and we are just under the midpoint of that range. As rumours of war criminal Putin’s health increase, markets would love to see him toppled.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Glassnode analytics

I do enjoy reading the analysis of on-chain metrics from Glassnode:

https://insights.glassnode.com/

Personally, I believe there is a wealth of information here which might profitably be used if one was to trade BTC with a short-term view.

Equally, I think it can be a guiding hand for long-term HODLERs (that is undoubtedly an accurate description of me) as to improving the timing of each addition to your crypto portfolio.

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Contrary to recent price weakness and all the associated pessimism exhibited by the techies and their devil’s offspring – the leveraged children – Glassnode has some rather more cheering news for us if you care to listen.

Top line is this:

“The Bitcoin market has traded back below $40k, as weakness continues to pressure prices lower. However, under the surface, a deep, and widespread capitulation event appears to have been absorbed by persistent, robust and quiet demand.”

As a bit of background, Glassnode divides the world of BTC holders into two categories, long-term and short-term. The distinction is defined by a holding period of 155 days. Glassnode claims that this cut-off point is statistically significant when assessing the probability of a holder selling their coins:

Glassnode have combined this definition with an analysis of UTXO Realised Price Distribution:

The all-time high (ATH) for BTC is now 163 days ago, neatly dovetailing with Glassnode’s definitions of LTHs and STHs. With a few more graphs, and some statistical analysis, Glassnode draws the following conclusion:

“Many investors are awaiting a complete and total capitulation of the market, which may well be around the corner given the volume of coins held at a loss, and weak price structure.

However under the surface, it appears as though a huge swathe of the market has already capitulated, in a statistically significant manner, and a resilient inflow of demand between $35k to $42k range has quietly absorbed this sell-side in its entirety.”

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Students of financial markets are keenly aware of the importance of the concept of capitulation.

Immediate post-capitulation price action can be wild and dramatic – only the very lucky who are few in number get to be involved on the right side of that trade.

The smart traders know this, and try to time their entry prior to the final capitulation.

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None of this commentary should be taken as financial advice.

None of this commentary provides any guarantees about future price action, but there are some interesting observations which might help to inform an opinion.