20th August 2025 > > The Fed & GENIUS.

tl;dr

The new Fed Vice Chair is pro-crypto, which is a lovely thing to see. The GENIUS Act is facing some pushback, which we hope will not be successful.

Market Snap 

Market Wrap

There are all sorts of nonsense being spouted simply because we are now 10% or so below last week’s new ATH. Get over it – that sort of vol is par for the course.

What I can guarantee you is that all the talking heads claiming knowledge of near-future price action know nothing, they know nothing at all. Let’s take two random examples:

“Bitcoin isn’t going below $100K — not in this cycle. Doesn’t matter the news, the Fed, or inflation…” – BitQuant

“My bet is this dump doesn’t find a decent area to bounce until 112k. Depending on IF we can find a reversal, a close below would be ugly and take us straight to 97k. Currently not seeing any signs of reversal so far.” – Roman

For my money BitQuant has probably called it right, but that is my obvious bias coming to the fore. Frankly, in the short-term, no-one knows.

Long-term is an entirely different proposition. I have said it before, and I will say it again. Those who DCA are very content with taking advantage of any minor, or preferably major, sell-off.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The Fed

Recently appointed Fed Vice Chair, Michelle Bowman, is on our side.

Michelle has direct responsibility for banking supervision, a tough enough job without having the hapless Jerome Powell as her direct boss. We all have our crosses to bear, I guess. Michelle has given a speech which is refreshingly supportive of cryptos, whilst also warning that TradFi banks risk fading into irrelevance. The speech was made at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, a daunting place to go if one was a crypto naysayer.

Some highlights of Michelle’s speech:

"Your industry has already experienced significant frictions with bank regulators applying unclear standards, conflicting guidance, and inconsistent regulatory interpretations.”

That’s one in the eye for the previous stance taken by the regulators.

"We need a clear, strategic regulatory framework that will facilitate the adoption of new technology, recognizing that in some cases, it may be inadequate and inappropriate to apply existing regulatory guidance to address emerging tech."

Michelle will play a key role in developing the rules for implementation of the GENIUS Act, so the outlook for the future of stablecoins in the US is very bright indeed.

"Regulators must recognize the unique features of these new assets and distinguish them from traditional financial instruments or banking products."

Another dig at Gensler and co.

"It is essential that banks and regulators are open to engaging in new technologies and departing from an overly cautious mindset.”

…

Michelle also suggests that staff at the Federal Reserve and the SEC should be allowed to own cryptos, giving them some skin in the game, rather than encouraging them to take pot-shots from the outside looking in.

I like that idea.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – GENIUS Act

Now that Michelle has started work on implementing the GENIUS Act, a ground-breaking piece of legislation that will legitimise and regulate stablecoins in the US, the TradFi banks are lobbying to change the rules already.

This gets to the heart of one of the major problems we have in the West these days, that of excessive and overly restrictive regulation. Large banks, and large companies, love over-regulation, for though it raises the cost of capital, lowering productivity, and making us all directly poorer as a result, it also raises barriers to entry reducing the threat of competition emerging as a usurper.

Properly designed and targeted regulation is patently obviously a good thing. When it sprawls, we all suffer. The EU is a prime example of the latter – it is a body charged with the responsibility of introducing rules with the objective of protecting French farmers, and German industry. Everything else is of secondary concern to its senior mandarins.

…

Perhaps it was in response to this lobbying by TradFi banks that Michelle warned them in her speech that unless they adapt to new technology, they “will play a diminished role in the financial system more broadly." Pleasingly, this message was reinforced with the announcement that Wyoming has launched its own fiat-backed stablecoin across seven blockchains:

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/WYGOV/bulletins/3ee734a

Branded as the Frontier Stable Token, Mark Gordon, governor of Wyoming and chairman of the Wyoming Stable Token Commission, explains the thinking behind this initiative:

"The mainnet launch of the Frontier Stable Token will empower our citizens and businesses with a modern, efficient, and secure means of transacting in the digital age”.

Yep, TradFi best be worried.