1st February 2026 > > BTC price action.

tl;dr

My take on the recent BTC price action. It seems that Warsh is an advocate for CBDCs – this is not good.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

That’s a painful Saturday, and I don’t just mean losing 2-0 at home to Swansea, though we were rubbish most of the game and deserved a kicking. More details on the BTC price action below. Meanwhile, weep for the leveraged children, who get taken out on a very regular basis – will they never learn:

Remember the golden rule – leveraged markets will always cause the maximum amount of pain to the maximum number of players. The perpetual futures game is rigged – you cannot lose if you do not play.

Always just buy spot.

Occasional Series – Interregnum

In our continual search to expand overseas, some senior members of the management team have been advised to take a closer look at Sri Lanka. My estimate is that we will need the whole of February to come to a decision. I am travelling tomorrow – the CCC will be back midweek, with a beach view.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – BTC or Gold?

https://x.com/WalkerAmerica/status/2016883196802040041?s=20

“Gold, because you’re old”.

h/t Dr. Chloe

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Four-year cycle?

I think it is fair to say that my strong conviction that the four-year cycle is well and truly dead is coming under some pressure.

The drawdown from October’s ATH at $126k to yesterday’s low of $76k is a slightly concerning 40%. We have often had drops of that nature in every bull market, so it is possible this is just one of those blips, but looking back at history this perhaps feels a little different.

In 2013 there were multiple corrections of this order but with retracement within a matter of days (oh, how we wish!). 2017 again saw five or more similar scenarios with recovery taking up to three weeks. In 2021 we saw a 55% correction lower before another local top that was brutally treated with a 75% fall lasting more than a year. Now that it is nearly four months since the last ATH, combined with the incessant withdrawal of funds from the spot BTC ETFs, with no imminent sign of recovery, it is very possible I am wrong, and that we are experiencing the bear phase of the cycle. If so, what could that mean?

The bear markets saw 70% to 90% drops, which would take us lower than $50k, which sounds scary to me. Typically, bears last a year or so, with the bottom forming roughly nine months after the ATH, which would be around July 2026 if history is to repeat.

I am not yet ready to concede that I am wrong, but I am prepared for a rough few months if necessary. The long-term outlook is unchanged – if you believe in the crypto revolution, this is just one of the many glitches we have been experiencing for the last decade or more.

The last bear took us down to $17K which turned out to be a fabulous buying opportunity. Wherever we land this time, if this is a bear, the same opportunity will be obvious in hindsight two years or so from now. As it is impossible to time the bottom, I will just keep on buying, but that should come as no surprise to anyone.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Chair of the Fed

Trump has picked Kevin Warsh to replace the hapless Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed. I am not sure Warsh is going to be any better than Powell though he will likely tell fewer untruths about the relationship between the Fed and its political masters.

What does worry me is this:

"A new digital dollar would strengthen the currency for a new era, and bolster America as leader of the global economic system."

Uh oh, that’s a dollar CBDC he is talking about there. And this:

“The Fed might prudently consider introducing its own digital currency to gain the benefits of innovation without sanctioning the illicit behavior that bitcoin and its brethren have attracted.”

Oh my, that old trope.

It is true he was talking about a wholesale CBDC, but once introduced, does anyone really believe it wouldn’t be extended to retail?

Warsh may be about to become one of the most dangerous men in all Western societies.