31st January 2026 > > The UN, prediction markets, & US regulators.

tl;dr

The UN? Seriously? Some excessive betting. The SEC and the CFTC are losing patience with the politicians.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

A small relief rally does not change the dial after seeing another day of $500mm of outflows from the spot BTC ETFs.

Occasional Series – The UN

The ridiculously overly compensated (but pays no tax) United Nations Security-General Antonio Guterres has claimed that the UN is “at risk of imminent financial collapse”.

Without wishing to be personal about it, Guterres himself has long looked like he is “at risk of imminent collapse.”

Putting to one side that his one and only concern is that his full fat tax free pension and unlimited expenses are at risk, there is no doubt that in an uncertain world, his prediction of the demise of the UN, if it comes to pass, is one sliver of a glimmer of hope for a better future for humankind.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Prediction markets

Onchain and anonymous prediction markets are having a good run, but as reported by The Breakdown, there are always some who just take it too far:

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Project Crypto

Hardly the most innovative of titles, Project Crypto has been relaunched by both the CFTC and SEC as a joint effort to provide regulatory clarity for the crypto industry:

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/seligstatement012926a

That was of course meant to be the job of the CLARITY Act, but as discussed in these missives on many an occasion, passage through the legislative hurdles for the Act is not proving to be as smooth as one might wish for.

The start of the press release is full of rather pointless politicking, which is a shame, but later the objective is made plain:

“We have designed Project Crypto to ensure that when Congress acts, the United States is ready to reinforce our global financial leadership. That includes sequencing – not stacking – new requirements through sensible implementation roadmaps; creating clear regulatory on-ramps for compliant participants; modernizing surveillance tools to reflect on-chain and hybrid market activity; and engaging transparently with new entrants, incumbents, investors and consumers alike.

We must act quickly to upgrade our rules and regulations to accommodate blockchain technology, digital assets and the legislation to come, or risk ceding these emerging markets to foreign regimes.”

Regulators showing both initiative and a desire to help not hinder business – wow. The world never ceases to surprise me. That point is driven home:

“For too long, bureaucratic regulators have forced market participants to navigate boundaries that are unclear in application and misaligned in design, particularly where economically similar activities are treated differently based solely on legacy jurisdictional silos. This fragmentation is not merely inconvenient; it limits innovation and hampers investor opportunities.”

Plaudits to Michael Selig, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Paul S. Atkins, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, two very important individuals who are championing the crypto cause.