19th July 2025 > > Altseason & 401k.

tl;dr

Some are getting excited about altseason, though I am not so sure. A huge new wall of demand for BTC is about to be unleashed in the US.

Market Snap 

Market Wrap

Despite my absence for nearly a whole week, you all did rather well looking after cryptos for me, the highlight being the new ATH at $123k five days ago. Much more of this, then our confidence that we will never see BTC back below $100k ever again can only grow.

Occasional Series – The Metropolitan Police

You just cannot make it up.

Source: billboard outside the Stratford Centre, east London, as part of an “anti-crime initiative”.

Occasional Series – My MP …

… has had the whip removed a second time for being a racist.

You all know I never voted for her during the three decades or more I have been one of her constituents. I do hope you are now convinced I always made the right decision, at least in that regard.

Curious Cryptos’ meme corner

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The naysayers

To all of those who hated BTC at $1k.

To all of those who hated BTC at $5k.

To all of those who hated BTC at $10k.

To all of those who hated BTC at $25k

To all of those who hated BTC at $50k.

To all of those who hated BTC at $100k.

To all of those who will still hate BTC when we get to $1.2mm.

May I gently suggest you go away and shut up, because no-one has ever been as wrong as you.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Altseason

Just six days ago, the CCC commented:

“With little evidence of retail speculators getting involved in this rally, all of those hoping for an altseason as we saw during the last two cycles will have to remain patient, perhaps for a very long time.”

Since that comment, BTC is largely unchanged whilst ETH is up 21%, XRP +26%, LINK +20%, AAVE + 8%, and SOL +9%. The list is endless. I am sure the degens out there can list a whole lot more small cap coins that are up a whole lot more than these impressive figures.

So, I got that wrong.

…

Or did I?

Are we now in altseason? I am not so sure, not because I shy away from admitting I am wrong. To be honest, on balance, I get more things wrong in life than right, and that applies equally to cryptos.

Except for one glaring exception.

Buying BTC and continually buying BTC, using no leverage, just cash that is not going to be missed, has been, still is, and always will be, the finest financial decision anyone can ever make. Obviously, the sooner you started the better, but hey, we cannot change the past, we can only make the future brighter.

Back to alts.

There is still no real evidence of a retail pile-in to cryptos generally. Given the high probability that BTC will continue on its upward march, until the macro situation takes a turn for the worse and puts a temporary and small dent in the shine, ETH and alts will continue to look OK, sometimes great, sometimes a bit “meh”.

If we see the start of retail FOMO, then yes, I grant you, a full-on altseason is likely. I still think that is a way-off, but what do I know? A touch of pre-positioning, for those who were not furiously buying the crypto winter, might be the wise choice.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – 401k retirement plans

Stung by the CCC’s recent criticism of its editorial antipathy towards cryptos, the Financial Times has upped its game by reporting positively on a development it expects to see this week:

It is estimated that the total value of these funds is around $9 TRILLION. If we assume that 3% - 5% will go into cryptos, mostly BTC, that adds another $270bn to $450bn of new demand. To put that in context, the daily inflows to the spot BTC ETFs are (usually) measured in the hundreds of millions. Adding approximately three years or more of spot BTC ETF demand into today’s mix can have only one impact on prices.

See you at $150k!