19th August 2024 > > Form 13F.

tl;dr

The quarterly filing of Form 13Fs is a window that offers us a tantalising glimpse into the future.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

A few breaches of $60k to the upside yesterday holds some promise for the week ahead, though with Polymarket at 49% each for Kamala Harris and Trump, the relative lack of crypto support from Harris herself probably prevents any significant movement upwards before November. Which seems an awful long way away.

It is also unfortunate timing as UK wealth taxes will be imposed from October 30th. Anyone wishing to avoid both those and dramatically steep increases in CGT must start to think carefully about any potential crypto sales.

Occasional Series – Football

Doncha love it?

Three games in, three wins, 11 goals, and our next two games are at home.

Go on the ‘orns!

Gentle reminder – I usually have one ticket spare for every home game (but not this weekend for a change). Let me know if you want to join me one Saturday afternoon at Vicarage Road, the true home of football.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Form 13Fs

Now that all 13Fs have been submitted for Q2 2024, this graphic looks interesting:

The “Unreported” bit on the left refers to spot BTC ETFs owned either by retail, or smaller funds that don’t have to submit 13Fs. From memory, that is any fund with less than $100mm AUM.

“Investment advisors” has increased from 6% Q1 to 9% Q2. This is the army of wealth advisors employed by the large banks and fund managers, many of whom are still doing their due diligence, with some notable exceptions like Morgan Stanley who are all-in. Oh, and Vanguard, who are all-out, for now, at least.

I am very pleased to see that pension funds have got involved in Q2. 0.2% doesn’t sound a lot but for such a conservative section of the investment industry, it is the direction of travel that is important. Nonetheless, pension funds compete against each other for clients. When it becomes universally recognised that adding BTC to the mix produces superior returns with lower risk, the stampede will become unstoppable.

The hedgies have reduced a bit. Within this cohort there will be momentum traders, adding to volatility, and value traders, lowering volatility. And of course, the basis traders and other arbitrageurs. Whichever strategy they employ, hedgies provide marginal liquidity that is sometimes very valuable to the rest of the market.

According to Farside (https://farside.co.uk/btc/) the net of inflows and outflows to spot BTC ETFs in the US totals just over $17bn since January, or approximately 300,000 BTC, over 1% of all BTC that will ever exist.

Do you really think that number is heading in any direction other than up from here?