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14th December 2023 > > Scam alert & predictions.


VanEck makes some predictions for 2024 but misses an important one – Corporate Treasury departments are soon going to start buying BTC.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

The Fed has indicated that there might be thee interest rate cuts in 2024 of 50bps each. Markets are pricing twice that move with QT limited to simply allowing treasuries to mature, and not selling into the open market.

Can anyone explain to me why the BoE insists on selling its stock of QE gilts with material mark-to-market losses? Taxpayers must make up the difference, whilst also raising the rates paid for new issuance, again another drain from taxpayers’ wallets. The alternative is to sit on the portfolio, benefiting from both the interest payments, and the capital gain at maturity. After all, central banks never need to consider cash flow, nor unrealised losses, for they are immune to such worries. All those gains could be returned to taxpayers or could be used to fund diversity officers for the NHS, whatever takes your fancy.

With a tax burden that restricts economic growth, and which encourages laziness over putting in the hours, the UK’s version of QT is simply nonsensical, a trait which has been a common feature of our politics of late.

Occasional Series – Scam alert

For those who use a Ledger Nano for self-custody, a vulnerability in its interaction with dApps has been taken advantage of. A fix is in process but for now you must do the following:

-          Clear your cache.

-          Do not use Ledger to interact with dApps.

Just two days ago, the CCC reminded everyone of some of the basic rules for your security around wallets and dApps including this comment:

“A wallet you have specifically designated for DeFi which does not store your long-term bags.”

If you have followed this basic advice, you have very little to worry about.

For more information:

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – VanEck predictions for 2024

VanEck is one of the dozen firms who have put in an application for a spot BTC ETF. Senior management has spent significant time, energy, and resources on developing in-house crypto knowledge. As an asset manager ($76bn AUM) the firm does not take positions, except at the very margins. What it does is to provide the conduit for investors to get involved, whilst also providing ring-fenced custodial solutions for those assets.

The firm will also conduct research, research which is fully compliant with all securities laws, unlike that bloke you watch on YouTube shilling whichever coin he happens to be long this week.

As it is that time of year, VanEck has published its “15 Crypto Predictions for 2024”. It makes for interesting reading:

Predictions no.11 (“A breakout blockchain game will finally arrive.”) & no.13 (“DePin networks see meaningful adoption.”) are topics to which we will return.

IMX and HNT respectively are the established players in these two areas. The former remains on the CC Treasury balance sheet. The latter – in which the CC Treasury was an early investor – has since been sold for decent upside. There are plenty of other potential winners in what may prove to be two markets of rapid growth.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Accounting for cryptos

Most people will fail to acknowledge the import of the new rules now confirmed by the FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) for the treatment of cryptos on corporate balance sheets:

Those with keen memories will recall that the CCC reported this potential change in the rules on the 8th of September 2023. A change which means that crypto profits and losses held on balance sheet are reported on a mark-to-market basis, not just an impairment basis. Well, now it is official, rather than simply a proposal.

For a more detailed analysis of the impact on demand for BTC, you can refer to the original CCC post. In the meantime, if you wish to have some validation of the CCC’s research team views, I leave you with a post from David Marcus, former President of PayPal:

“You may think this is a small accounting change that doesn’t mean much. It’s actually a big deal. This removes a large obstacle standing in the way of corporations holding BTC on their balance sheet. 2024 will be a landmark year for $BTC.”

This is what I have been saying for some time now.

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