12th September 2023 > > Politicians.

tl;dr

Who knew that UK politicians lie as much as their Chinese counterparts?

Market Snap

Market Wrap

BTC took a dive to $25k overnight before an even more rapid rebound to sit unchanged since we last spoke. $25k is one of those psychologically important levels that clearly attracted some buyers in size. I am not unhappy about the promise of increased vol – it will make writing the daily Market Wrap that much easier.

Meanwhile, rumours abound about a tie-up between XLM (Stellar Lumens) and X.

For transparency, the CCC Treasury has been invested in XLM since March 2018. Using a form of DCA has resulted in a 44% return to date though there can be no doubt that there have been some rather better selling opportunities in that time …

The Stellar Foundation is expected to make an announcement today. I have my finger poised over the sell button for up to 50% of the XLM stash depending on how far the price might react but I suspect XLM holders will be disappointed once more.

Curious Cryptos’ – Technical Analysis

This graph was put forward for serious discussion yesterday in a chat group for whom the individuals have the collective pleasure (though possibly they might use a different adjective) of my involvement:

Whatever happens to the price of BTC, this techie will claim his squiggles told you all you needed to know.

How come?

There is no possible outcome of any price over any timeframe which cannot be fitted to this graph’s so-called predictions. Snake oil in gallon flasks my friends.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – UK politicians and their promises

I know there is a whiff of dog bites man about this, but I feel compelled to add to the growing expectation that Rishi Sunak is leading the Tories to a possibly existential defeat at the next general election.

He promised to “stop the boats”. Those who are of a different opinion would never vote for him anyway. Those who could have been swayed will now not vote for him as he claims he is powerless to do anything about it. Which cannot be true and does not play well.

He/she/they promised to stop schools allowing social transitioning for kids without their parents’ approval. Again, those who are of a different opinion would never vote for him anyway. Those who could have been swayed will now not vote for him as he claims he is powerless to do anything about it. Which cannot be true and does not play well.

He promised to halve inflation by the end of the year. Putting aside the blatantly obvious (he has no control over global commodity prices, nor world events) he has now admitted that this objective will probably not be achieved, the reasons for which are outside of his control.

Jeremy Hunt – it is very sweet that no-one uses his actual surname in writing, though trust me, when speaking about him with colleagues of his and others, I know of no-one who holds back on that point – has set out his stall as out-Browning Gordon Brown. I express no opinion on the merits or otherwise of such a political stance, but I suspect it doesn’t appeal to his party’s normal constituency of voters.

Labour’s majority is going to be so overwhelming that wealth taxes are a given. Higher rate taxes and VAT are going up, whilst tax allowances will never increase again. Capital gains tax on selling your main home is baked in, hence driving house prices higher still, and severely damaging productivity as geographical mobility is stymied. There will be a super-tax on second homes, whether you buy, sell, die, or simply do nothing but rent it out.

You may agree or disagree with these policies – and I make no comment about my personal thoughts on such matters – but it is now time to start preparing for some rapid changes in 2024. Not least the beginning of the end for sterling, as the UK embarks on a fast-track approach to adopting the Euro.

Another one of the myriads of drivers towards the wholesale adoption of cryptos.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – China

Fresh from regularly banning cryptos, then encouraging them, then banning them again, then making Hong Kong a crypto centre of the world (what exactly is it about murderous and tyrannical despots, flip-flopping in a Starmer-like manner whilst named Xi, that means one cannot trust them?) China has now issued a “three-year action plan” to promote the metaverse.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Ouch that hurts!

The largest transaction fee for a BTC transaction which was worth $510,000. The amount of BTC moved? 0.074 BTC worth around $2k. Oops, someone needs to check their default settings …