tl;dr
Revolut seemingly offers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Switzerland foregoes a historic opportunity. Small investors are fleeing BTC, whilst also fleeing the exchanges. For institutional investors, the supply of BTC held by OTC desks is heading in only one direction.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
BTC ETF flows have turned negative for two days though not on the scale of the recent inflows.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Now, that’s an opportunity
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Switzerland
Rather sadly, the campaign to change the country’s constitution to allow the SNB (Swiss National Bank) to add BTC to its reserves has fallen by the wayside. Proponents argued it would strengthen monetary sovereignty and reduce reliance on dollar and euro reserves. The SNB has consistently rejected cryptocurrencies as reserve assets, claiming it has concerns around high volatility and insufficient liquidity.
The authorities had allowed the Bitcoin Initiative eighteen months to collect 100,000 signatures in support of a referendum on the topic – referenda are a frequent occurrence in Switzerland which, uniquely in the world, uses them as one of its primary tools for new legislation.
However, with just weeks to go only about half the number of supporters required have been recruited. Yves Bennaim, founder of the Bitcoin Initiative has conceded defeat:
"We knew from the beginning that it was a long shot. For now, we are going to let the initiative lapse.”
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – BTC wallets
Santiment has reported a drop in the number of BTC wallets of around 245,000 in just five days, the fastest exit rate for two years.
Hands up those who think this is bearish?
Yes, I thought so. Well, you are all wrong – it is a positive sign. I will let Santiment explain:
“Bitcoin is seeing its amount of holders decline at the fastest rate in nearly 2 years, likely due to retail traders taking profit (sic – it should say losses). Crypto’s top market cap has shrunk by 245K wallets in 5 days, the most since the summer of 2024.
Capitulation is one of the key ingredients to the beginning of bull runs, and wallets can drop out during both a price fall (out of fear of losing more) or on a price rise (expecting prices to not go any higher).
When holders leave, the remaining supply consolidates into the hands of those with the highest conviction. These are participants who have already decided they are not selling at current prices, which means the effective liquid supply available to the market shrinks. With fewer coins actively circulating and more locked away in patient hands, even modest increases in new demand can have an outsized impact on price. It is basic supply and demand dynamics but playing out at the holder level rather than the order book.”
Source: https://x.com/SantimentData/status/2052523325403156595
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – BTC exchange reserves
Nearly 100,000 BTC has been withdrawn from the major centralised cryptocurrency exchanges in the last three months. From a total of just over 900,000 BTC in February, Binance, OKX, and Gemini are now down to just over 800,000 BTC, a drop of more than 10%.
Hands up those who think this is bullish?
Yes, you are all correct – it is a positive sign.
The withdrawal of coins that are readily available to sell restricts the liquid supply available to retail.
At the same time, the BTC held by OTC desks that represents the liquid supply available to institutional investors has dropped by 25,000 BTC in a month, a fall of 15% or so. Since September 2024, the OTC balance has moved from 240,000 BTC to about 130,000 BTC:
There are some interesting implications for holders of BTC if we see a simultaneous supply shock for both institutional and retail investors.