9th October 2025 > > MS & Uganda.
- Mark Timmis
- Oct 9
- 3 min read
tl;dr
I missed a trick yesterday, so I am putting the record straight. Uganda is now a scary place.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
One week into the US government shutdown, and has anyone noticed? I thought not. Certainly not crypto investors who have ploughed over $5.5bn into the spot BTC ETFs and nearly $2bn into the spot ETH ETFs over the last eight trading days.
Occasional Series – Interregnum
I know, I know, there has just been a four-day interregnum or so, but sometimes life gets in the way of the CCC. I’m as disappointed as you are, but I have a bit of acting work to do, some Aussies are over, and there is a boat party, undoubtedly with an afters at mine:
Last time you all pulled together magnificently in my absence, handing out three new all-time highs. Why don’t you just do that again?
See you on the other side.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Morgan Stanley
A very astute reader pointed out that I missed something very important yesterday (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/58h-october-2025-new-aths-ms).
Of the $2 TRILLION currently within the orbit of the personal financial advisors tied to Morgan Stanley, there will be very little of that money already allocated to crypto investments, so little we can simply ignore it for the sake of expedience. If we take the mid-point of the recommended 2% - 4% allocation to cryptos (it will be much higher), that indicates new additional investment of around $60bn, probably within a relatively short timescale.
Ecoinometrics provides paid-for research, which I cannot share with you in detail. But what is very clear is the strong correlation between the price of BTC and the flows into, or out of, the spot BTC ETFs. The headline number is that every additional 10 BTC, currently valued at over $1.2mm, bought by the spot ETFs causes a price increase of a dollar per BTC.
There are many other factors at play as well, but we can view that relationship as providing a permanent dollar increase in the price of BTC, until those investments are sold, which will have an equal and opposite effect.
I am confident that the current inflows to the spot BTC ETFs are long-term, and not speculative, except at the margins. I think the same assumption can be applied to the forthcoming $60bn from Morgan Stanley’s wealthy clients, all of whom will be clamouring to clamber onboard the cryptos express, using the spot ETF vehicles. After all, anyone with half a brain cell is doing the same.
$60bn buys approximately 500,000 BTC. Ecoinometrics’ analysis suggests that this might add a permanent $50k boost to the price of BTC.
One day soon, when you can no longer buy BTC for less than seven figures, future investors will view today’s prices as a total steal. Which is exactly what they are. Never forget, we are still so early.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Uganda
It is with much sadness that I must report that Uganda, despite the best efforts of the team behind the CCC, has launched its own CBDC to replace the Ugandan shilling:
This project starts well, with the desire to bring $5.5bn of real-world assets onto the blockchain, a process we know as tokenisation. But it fails the first sniff test – this is a permissioned blockchain, owned and operated by Global Settlement Network. Permissioned blockchains are no more than a glorified database, offering some efficiency advantages over a database, but they pale into insignificance when put alongside non-permissioned blockchains.
The CBDC is also a private venture, backed by Ugandan government bonds, in an unholy alliance that mimics real stablecoins whilst allowing the politicians control over how users access and spend their funds, control which will be used soon enough.
Incredibly, the creators of this beast want to roll it out across the whole of Africa, ensnaring over 1.5 billion people in their net of control and coercion. Scary times.
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