9th August 2024 > > Fiat & the US election.

tl;dr

Markets are ever more volatile, to our advantage. A slightly historical perspective on fiat. I told you that despite the bookies’ odds the US election is too close to call.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Horror! The price of MSTR dropped 90% overnight on the US open. Ouch!

Relax folks, there was a 10:1 stock split, and some online brokerage accounts still struggle to deal with such basics, despite being informed weeks in advance (looking at you Interactive Investor).

…

With BTC back over $60k and close to last Saturday’s price before the real panic set in, that old chestnut that markets will cause the maximum amount of pain to the maximum number of leveraged players has been proved true once again. Leveraged players only ever have a small exit door, with volatility as the result. Spot players using DCA are the winners.

The seemingly innocuous trigger for the recent violent carnage, a mere 0.25% increase in the short end of the Yen yield curve imposed by the Bank of Japan on carry traders, illuminates just how small that exit door can be. It also illuminates the façade of central bank independence. Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, has been put back in his box by his political masters with this public comment by his deputy Shinichi Uchida:

“We won’t raise interest rates when markets are unstable.”

If that ain’t political, then nothing is.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – A gentle reminder

Curious Cryptos’ Meme Corner

Henry Ford knew his potatoes.

Much like when the Golgafrinchans (as portrayed in The Restaurant at the End of the Universe) sent their middlemen on a long journey into space, middlemen who then happened to land on planet Earth and populate it. Their first attempt at money – represented by leaves from trees that were dominating a pre-industrial landscape – was destined for the same fate as fiat will be, if the only solution to difficult, but not intractable, problems is to ramp up the printing presses once more.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – US election odds

It was only three days ago that the CCC pointed out that Polymarket bets massively in favour of Trump – 70% at one point – might have been a case of wishful thinking, whilst also driving the pricing of fixed odds in the traditional betting world, in contrast to the polls pointing to an even split:

https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/6th-august-2024-lessons-the-us-election

Polymarket bettors who took notice and decided to back Harris are now sitting on up to 15% gains plus on the notional wagered depending on your timing, not bad for an investment duration of just half a week:

My initial thought is to recycle these winnings back into BTC, but I can also see the attraction of a pretty decent lunch gratis of those who fundamentally misunderstand the dynamics of a two-horse race.