8th August 2024 > > 13-Fs, absurdity, & XRP.

tl;dr

Some rather lovely 13-Fs are being filed for Q2. Putin and Trump once again look very foolish. XRP wins against the SEC, an event that we are all very pleased about.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

5% of BTC supply is now owned by ETFs or similar exchange traded products. Who are the holders? See below for some examples.

On the 7th July 2024, the CCC reported a price for BTC of $57,200, bearing an obvious similarity to today’s price. During this last month we have touched $70k once and $50k once, just to end up unchanged. However, speculative traders who are trying just to make a quick buck will have bought high, and sold low, or they will likely have lost a bunch from futures liquidations. Stay in spot, keep on using DCA, and you will always be in a better position in the long-run, in my opinion.

Occasional Series – Truly we live in the land of the absurd

But even Putin can be out-absurded, if only there was such a word:

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Disclosure

A lovely bit of news to share with you as the deadline for Q2 13-Fs draws close, now less than a week away.

Capula Investment Management has declared holding approximately half a billion dollars of spot BTC ETFs shared between Fidelity and BlackRock:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1557017/000117266124003075/xslForm13F_X02/infotable.xml

With $30bn AUM, 2% of total assets has been invested into BTC. It would be no surprise to see that number rise in the future, reinforcing my long-held view that 3% - 5% of all investment money will flow into cryptos, predominantly BTC. For example, looking at Millennium Management, it has allocated $2bn to BTC from an AUM of $68bn to date, a tidy 3% so far.

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Other notable reports include the State of Michigan Retirement System, which is very exciting news. BTC adoption by pension funds may not be as slow a burner as I previously predicted.

Institutional adoption of BTC – to increase returns with an overall reduction in risk – is only just getting going.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – XRP

The clear overnight winner is XRP rallying from 50c to over 60c following a court decision that Ripple Labs Inc. must pay just $125mm penalty to settle a long-running case brought by the anti-liberal establishment embodied in Gary Gensler and the SEC. You may recall the SEC asked for a $2bn fine to be awarded, so there is yet again a loss of face and trust in Gensler and his stewardship.

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple Labs Inc., stated on X:

“The SEC asked for $2B, and the Court reduced their demand by ~94% recognizing that they had overplayed their hand. We respect the Court’s decision and have clarity to continue growing our company.

This is a victory for Ripple, the industry and the rule of law. The SEC’s headwinds against the whole of the XRP community are gone.”

Co-founder Chris Larsen echoes Brad’s second point:

“The SEC's unhinged campaign against us is finally over. Let’s all hope this ends this Administration’s war on crypto.”

I agree this is a victory, but I think that’s a bit of wishful thinking that the SEC isn’t going to come back and harass Ripple anymore. I think that’s baked into Gensler’s approach to cryptos, and what does he care if he wastes taxpayers’ money on his pet project to keep the price of BTC low until he has the opportunity to build his own stash once he is out of his current job?