6th November 2024 > > New ALL-TIME HIGH!!

tl;dr

A new ALL-TIME HIGH at over $75k is a lovely thing to wake up to.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

With Trump likely to be the new POTUS (Polymarket is near 100%) the immediate reaction has been positive in the crypto markets, and not just for BTC. Alts are showing double digit gains almost across the board.

Assuming that Trump has been honest with us (a heroic assumption I know, but let’s go with it for now) his ambition to make the US the global leader in cryptos will require a total legislative and regulatory overhaul of the crypto space in the US.

The first casualty will be Gary Gensler, Chair of the SEC, whose regulation by enforcement approach is no longer tenable. Trump promised to fire him on “day one”. I suspect Gensler will fall on his sword before then. Good riddance to you. You will recall that the CCC recently broke an exclusive scoop detailing Gensler’s personal crusade to manipulate the price of BTC to extraordinary lows simply to allow him to fill his boots once his tenure was over. How did that turn out, Gensler?

We can expect SAB 121 to be repealed sharpish. This arcane accounting instruction on Gensler’s orders effectively prevented any regulated bank from providing crypto custodial solutions to its clients. With this draconian restriction out of the way, institutional adoption of cryptos will be turbo-charged, with a predictable impact on pricing.

Several important crypto related bills are stuck at various stages of the approval process. We will look at them in detail over the next few days, to assess how they will help crypto adoption. With a Senate majority, and a likely House majority for the Republicans, the current crypto legislative logjam will soon be a thing of the past.

As for the UK, we are lucky that our Foreign Secretary doesn’t throw playground insults at a former and future POTUS, and remains as always, a model of moderation, maturity, and decency.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Polymarket

The gap between Polymarket and the polls has been a notable one. If you want a complicated explanation (with conspiracy in the title) then here is a convoluted and concocted analysis:

https://medium.com/quantum-economics/my-polymarket-conspiracy-thoery-cc011925207d

As always with conspiracy theories, Occam’s razor is the only tool you need to cut the theory down. In this case, Polymarket is decentralised, the players are all crypto enthusiasts, and popular opinion (rightly or wrongly) is that a Trump Presidency will be very good for crypto prices.

That is the simplest explanation, and therefore the correct one.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Money printer

Important point – we know from the experience of the last decade and a half that money printing does not cause inflation in open economies. Close the economy (aka response to Covid) and inflation rips. Unless we have another pandemic and react in the same way, money printing will not lead to a collapse in fiat against commodities or consumer goods.

Money printing does necessarily mean that hard assets are worth more in $$$$ terms. For most people, money printing just makes it harder to buy a house, harder to save, and harder to invest those savings. On an absolute and relative basis, money printing (including quantitative easing and other less obvious policies) is the least progressive action a government could enact, other than MMT.

There is little doubt that Trump will outspend Obama.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Interest payments are getting out of control

Supporters of money printing are happy to pay this price.