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4th February 2025 > > The US & a strange question.

tl;dr

A US sovereign wealth fund is now a given, though the assets behind it are yet to be established. A strange question that is being put to bed – I refuse to ever answer it again.


Market Snap


Market Wrap

Given the dramatic recovery in prices, that brutal move from $105k to nearly $90k does look now as though it was initially driven by weekend hedging of other risk assets (whose markets were shut) exacerbated by the leveraged liquidations.


Yesterday I reported that there had been $2bn of liquidations. Well, that isn’t true. Bybit’s CEO has said that on Bybit alone there was $2bn of long trades forced to close. Estimates of the total carnage range up to $10bn. Oh dearie me.


Mexico has followed Columbia’s lead in acceding to Trump’s demands (in Mexico’s case a material increase in border patrols aimed at restricting both the fentanyl trafficking trade and the human trafficking trade) in exchange for tariff-free legal trade. Officially the tariff suspension is only for a month, but a final agreement will be reached. With 80% of Canada’s exports going to the US, Canada will surely take the same path. The threat of a global trade war is over-egged in my opinion.


* Stop Press * I read that Canada has capitulated to Trump’s demands too.


Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – US sovereign wealth fund

Yesterday Trump signed an executive order that “… directs the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce to deliver a plan within 90 days for the creation of a sovereign wealth fund”:



Reminder – an earlier executive order demanded a report by 23rd July 2025 on the feasibility (or otherwise) of a BTC strategic reserve fund.


The photo accompanying the press release shows Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald by Trump’s side. Cantor Fitzgerald is both the asset manager for Tether, and owns 5% of Tether. Howard has been closely involved in building the most successful business ever known.


The probability that the US government starts to buy BTC for its own account has materially increased.


Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – A strange question

I am often asked at times of market, or specifically crypto, stress how I feel about the sell-off. That isn’t the strange question by the way.


I say the same thing every time – I am mightily pleased. The question that is strange is that in response I am asked “Why? Why are you pleased with a sell-off?”


It’s obvious.


First of all, you have to believe in the crypto revolution. The naysayers adore every short-term setback, but completely fail to zoom out to understand what is really happening here:


If you are unsure, then that is the log scale. In absolute terms, it looks like this:


I suspect on that narrow point I am largely preaching to the converted.


Secondly, I never use leverage. It’s a mugs game for everyone apart from a very few, very smart, individuals who prey on the uninitiated, the weak, the speculators, and the stupid.


Thirdly, another great reason to welcome the seismic sell-offs is the huge benefit they bring to your DCA strategy. Buying more at the lower prices, and buying less at higher prices is a proven money-making machine.


Finally, and this is UK-centric, a crypto sell-off is the perfect time to sell some of your MSTR stash held in a tax-accruing investment account at lower prices than otherwise (reducing the amount of CGT payable to UK Chancellor Rachel Queen of Thieves Reckless Reeves to spend on train drivers) and to pop up to £20k of MSTR stock into your tax-free ISA at a lower acquisition cost than otherwise, i.e. more shares.


Lovely, jubbly.


So, yes, I am always a big fan of a sell-off.


And if anyone ever asks “Why?” again, I am simply going to walk away, mouth open in astonishment at the lack of savviness on display.

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8th February 2025 > > The UK & US states.

tl;dr Andrew Bailey, cor blimey guv’! Kentucky and Florida join the wait-list of US states queuing up to adopt BTC as a treasury reserve...

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