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31st January 2023 > > New York.

tl;dr

More crypto adoption in the US.


Market Snap








Market Wrap

A second attempt at breaching $24k to the upside failed again yesterday, and softness in stocks meant we dipped overnight to as low at $22,700. My personal view is that it will take some strong positive news, or simply some time in a relatively benign environment before a serious assault is mounted on the psychologically important level of $25k (see below for more details).


Occasional Series – Nichola Sturgeon

Now that Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, and High Priestess of Wokeness (one is never quite sure which role is the more important to her), has publicly stated that trans women are not always women, perhaps we can now all move on from one of the most divisive debates to a better place.


Occasional Series – Possible publication schedule disruption

For personal reasons - largely involving sun, sea, and sand – it is possible that the CCC publication schedule might be disrupted over the next week.


Curious Cryptos’ Commentary — Who is back in-the-money?

Glassnode have released a report (https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-05-2023/) which includes this graph:



This tells us that the 2019 cohort of buyers are now back in profit.


Buyers from 2020 and 2022 both need a price above $28k to feel the same love, whilst of course the 2021 class – who fuelled the rally to nearly $70k – remain deeply in the red now all the way up to $38k.


This suggests to me that we will likely pause here in the low 20s for a while, and then again in the high 20s, as the less committed buyers seize the chance to close out for little or no loss.


Both these ranges are also bound to the upside by the psychologically important levels of $25k and $30k.


Curious Cryptos’ Commentary — More crypto adoption

Three days ago, we looked at Arizona’s desire to make BTC legal tender within its regulatory and legal boundaries.


Crypto naysayers were keen to level the accusation that Arizona is a hotbed of Trump supporting rednecks, though I would suggest that as the Governor of Arizona hails from the Democrats, that trope fails to clear any reasonable hurdle of truth or relevance. But why let facts get in the way of an insult?


Now New York – hardly the home of Trump supporting rednecks, quite the opposite in fact – is heading down the same path.


A bill introduced on the 26th of this month (https://legiscan.com/NY/bill/A02532/2023) will allow cryptos to be accepted as payment.


Admittedly there will only be certain situations – taxes, rents, fines, and then only by state agencies – in which crypto receipts are legitimate, which falls somewhat short of Arizona’s ambition. But if this bill becomes law, it clearly opens the way to adoption of cryptos as payment in all circumstances.


Aka BTC becomes legal tender.


That word “if” is doing some heavy lifting here, and clearly, we are looking at a world of supposition and possibilities, no more than that.


But the route of travel is being signposted by moves like these made by such disparate states as Arizona and New York. The US is also the country whose ruling political elite is the most opposed to CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) in the world, to the extent that the Fed’s (Federal Reserve Bank) current policy is to NOT introduce a CBDC. Indeed, the US is in a prime position to benefit from the introduction of CBDCs elsewhere.


These early attempts at making cryptos legal tender – once successful, as they surely will be – will ensure that the horrors that will be occasioned by CBDCs in other countries will have little traction in the US.


BTC maximalists won’t like this, but cryptos seem set to reinforce dollar hegemony.

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