29th November 2023 > > ETFs, Vitalik, & EURO CBDC.

tl;dr

ETF predictions. Vitalik speaks – you should listen! The EURO CBDC is struggling to find justification for itself.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Another breach of $38k overnight suggests that the 40-handle may not be far off.

The cause of this latest surge was commentary from Christopher Waller, one of the Fed’s governors. Waller expressed optimism that the artificial target of 2% inflation is in sight because of “encouraging signs of an economic slowdown”.

This is a major problem when decision makers view an economic slowdown as encouraging. A recession would have no impact on Waller and his ilk but would be devastating to millions of other individuals. We need no further evidence that the manipulation of interest rates must be taken away from central banks, politicians, and technocrats, and left solely to the markets to decide.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – More spot BTC ETF predictions

After those four downbeat assessments two days ago, a bit of balance is required. Former NYSE President Tom Farley told CNBC:

“Money will flood into the industry with a bitcoin ETF. It’s just easier to buy. People believe in bitcoin. Bitcoin is a great invention.”

I should also point out that Tom is CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Bullish (now there’s a name) so one cannot ignore the possibility of him talking his own book.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Crypto God Vitalik Buterin

Vitalik has written a longish essay discussing A.I. and its potential problems. You won’t be surprised to hear that the solution, or solutions, involves decentralisation, a lesson we are all learning daily:

https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html

I leave you to read, digest, critique, throw in the rubbish bin, as you will. But it is cheering for me to know that Vitalik and I are at one with each other at times:

“Applications like Fire are an example of one way to go much further. However, security software like this should not be something that requires explicit installs; it should be part of crypto wallets, or even browsers, by default.”

GIN:

https://www.joinfire.xyz/

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The EU and the EURO CBDC

The EU is in the process of formulating legislation to implement its own CBDC. Convicted Criminal Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, is one of its strongest proponents, though at the same time I have no doubt she would consider herself to be progressively liberal, failing to recognise that CBDCs are a wonderful tool if your aim is to exert coercion and control.

The European Parliament held a public hearing asking questions of expert witnesses about the implications and impact of a CBDC. It looks like Lagarde will not necessarily get her own way any time soon.

Ignazio Angeloni, an economist who was commissioned by the European Parliament to write a paper on this topic, questioned the need for a CBDC at all:

“The arguments on balance today would not favour such a decision to issue a CBDC in my view. An invasive form of public intervention like this one would be justified only if clear evidence were to emerge of malfunctioning in the present system. But this is not in sight at the moment.”

In response, Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Fernández Ordóñez made the claim that a CBDC would make the banking system safer. This claim was countered by Marieke Van Berkel, head of retail banking, payments, and digitalisation at the European Association of Cooperative Banks (EACB) who believes that an exodus of depositors from commercial banks into the supposed security of a CBDC would be destabilising.

The difference in opinions between technocrats and those who work in the real world is stark.