27th April 2025 > > Crypto Task Force & Ark Invest.

tl;dr

The Crypto Task Force holds its third roundtable, allowing us some early insights into the thinking of its new Chair, Paul Atkins. Ark Invest adds more cheer to the recent rally in crypto prices.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Spot BTC ETFs were on fire this week with over $3bn of inflows after a long period of outflows coinciding with the price moving from $85k to $95k. The speculators who fled the game between $75k and $85k the week before are scratching their heads wondering how they got it so badly wrong once again.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – He is right about this

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Crypto Task Force

Last Friday saw the third of the roundtables hosted by the Crypto Task Force with the title “Know Your Custodian: Key Considerations for Crypto Custody:

https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/meetings-events/know-your-custodian-key-considerations-crypto-custody

This latest discussion was notable as it is the first time that the new SEC Chair Paul Atkins has had a platform to speak at length about his vision for how the SEC will regulate cryptos going forward. Let’s have a look at a few of the highlights:

“Innovation has been stifled for the last several years due to market and regulatory uncertainty that unfortunately the SEC has fostered.”

I would have replaced “unfortunately” with “deliberately” or even “deliberately and maliciously” which probably gives an insight into why my political career was cut rather short.

“Market participants engaging with this technology deserve clear regulatory rules of the road.”

Can’t argue with that. Once again, in a very diplomatic manner, Paul is giving the finger to Gensler.

“I look forward to engaging with market participants and working with colleagues in President Trump's Administration and Congress to establish a rational, fit-for-purpose regulatory framework for crypto assets.”

That is all that everyone wants, and Paul is the man to deliver it.

“Cryptos will provide huge benefits …”

[Rest of the sentence is drowned out by cheers of “Hear, hear”.]

…

What I do find strange is that there are some who are complaining that the new SEC agenda, and that of the new administration, is aimed at removing regulation from the crypto sphere, which simply cannot be further from the truth.

Previously, the only crypto specific guidance mostly consisted of cack-handed attempts at trying to stop the crypto revolution (SAB 121, all the stuff that David Sacks’ comment above refers to, and other nonsense), but there was no actual legislation. It was merely bureaucrats prosecuting their own prejudices and feeling self-satisfied about the obstacles they created, which is not an uncommon occurrence.

Paul will build a robust framework for crypto regulation which will be of huge benefit not just to the crypto industry and all our freedoms and liberties, but also to the behemoth that is the US government and its insatiable appetite for spending taxpayers’ dollars whilst also accumulating inconceivably vast amounts of debt that can never be repaid.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Ark Invest

With optimism back on the up, let’s stoke those flames with the latest update from Ark Invest, managed by long-term crypto enthusiast Cathie Wood.

The latest report from Ark concerns its price targets for BTC for 2030, and you are going to love it:

https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/arks-bitcoin-price-target-2030

In Ark’s Big Ideas 2025 report, bear, base, and bull predictions were $300k, $710k, and $1.5mm per BTC by 2030.

Now those predictions have been updated to become $500k for the worst-case scenario, $1.2mm for the base case, and a whopping $2.4mm if everything pans out as well as it could. That provides some context for my long-held view of $1.2mm per BTC, first circulated in 2020 when BTC was priced around $10k, and most recently updated in May 2024:

https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/13th-may-2024-investment-adoption-of-btc

In simple terms, this is how the latest Ark targets break down:

Though Ark’s methodology is clearly more sophisticated than mine, there are some striking similarities in our approach to analysing the potential price for BTC. I heartily recommend a more thorough reading of this relatively short piece from the research team at Ark, to help you assess whether your personal BTC exposure is correctly sized or not.