25th May 2024 > > US debt & ETFs.

tl;dr

Wanna see something so very scary? There is a superior way to avoid the fall-out of wholesale debt monetisation, and the spot BTC ETFs are doing just that.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

I know I have said this before, and I have been wrong, but it does feel like volatility is building, which is ideal for investors who use DCA, and will hurt most of the leveraged day traders.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Scare the pants off time

This is data from the St. Louis Fed which, for historical reasons I am unaware of, has always taken a place of precedence amongst the twelve regional Reserve Banks.

Not only is this amount of debt never going to be repaid, the debt pile will accelerate whoever wins this year’s election. Both Biden and Trump are innately (and inanely) fiscally incontinent.

There will be debt monetisation, and it will be a shocker when it happens.

In that scenario, you need to own assets priced in dollars. I know of one prime example of that class of asset. I hope you can guess what it is.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – BTC ETF flows

We are now on a nine-day streak of inflows to the ten spot BTC ETFs with a value of $1.75bn, approximately 25,750 BTC.

I have a theory that since the form 13Fs started to become public, some of the laggards became motivated to get involved for the first time. The investment industry is notorious for its herd instinct – very few investment managers like to strike out entirely on their own path. If this is the case, then these inflows will not only continue, but they will increase.

Over this nine-day period, just 4,050 new BTC were mined. More than 20,000 BTC were transferred from previous holders into the ETFs. When demand outstrips new supply six-fold that means only one thing for price action in the medium-term.