25th August 2023 > > Megalomaniacs and the halving.

tl;dr

Leaving aside the megalomaniacs we view the halving in a new light.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Risk assets on the rack again.

Occasional Series – Murderous dictators 1 (*)

Perhaps the next Russian revolution has just started?

If so, mass murderer Putin will be one of the first up against the wall. My liberal instinct prefers a trial, and an appropriate sentence, but we all know that is not going to happen. Either way, the world will be an immeasurably better place once this evil bastard is in chains or, more likely, dead.

Just like many of those who crossed him. Just like the innumerably more civilians that happened to be in the crossfire of his narcissism.

Seeing Putin publicly strung up to rot mediaeval style might be some peoples’ preference.

Next up, Xi and his sadistic henchmen.

Occasional Series – Murderous dictators 2

This “superyacht” is only 82m in length. That aint a superyacht in my circle of friends, that’s for sure.

I thought Putin was bigger than that.

It transpires that I am not the first to make that comment, though my sources insist on anonymity.

Occasional Series – Murderous dictators 3

Only kidding. George Gideon Oliver Osborne is not that bad.

…

The scale of the theft from the British Museum is yet another example of how the woke elite cannot be trusted. Osbourne, formally Chancellor of the Exchequer but now Chairman of the British Museum, proves once again his incompetence.

Osborne has so many jobs that HMRC has a team of individuals solely dedicated to trying to track down his various P60s, of which there are too many to count. Or rather, those P60s could be counted, if only any of those allocated to the Osborne Tax Team (you really do want to read the messages in their dedicated WhatsApp group. Trust me, they are revealing) could ever be bothered to come into the office. But that is a discussion for another day.

I do wonder though if this revelation of losses of artefacts is simply a low-ball way of providing covering fire to Osborne’s burning desire to transfer the Elgin Marbles to Greece?

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The halving

Much is being made about the historical impact of the halving on the price of BTC.

Economics 1.0 tells us that if demand remains constant and supply reduces, the price of a commodity will increase. Every halving to date has adhered to this iron rule.

The CCC has previously raised concerns that the growing enthusiasm for the next halving due in April 2024 fails to consider that the impact of each halving must be less than the previous one. The first halving reduced supply by 25 BTC per block. April’s forthcoming halving will reduce supply by just 3.125 BTC per block.

It seems possible that misplaced hype around the halving could lead to a sell the rumour, buy the fact scenario. At least, that was a growing conviction of mine.

A conviction in which I am now losing faith (i.e. this is a good thing).

…

Pantera Capital have addressed this issue:

https://panteracapital.com/blockchain-letter/a-positive-black-swan/#_ftn1

A simple analysis (and one that the CCC should have undertaken. I will have words with the research team) leads Pantera to claim:

“The 2016 halving decreased the supply of new bitcoins only one-third as much as the first. Interestingly, it had exactly one-third the price impact.

The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% relative to the previous halving. It had a 23% as big an impact on price.”

Pantera’s conclusion is this:

There is one key unknown here, and an assumption (the figure of 47% which looks rogue to me) that can be easily challenged.

But there is a simple message in this simple graphic which I hope catches on – the price impact from the halving should not be as great as in the past. If that message cuts through, speculative frenzy ahead of the halving should be dampened, which can only be positive in the long run.

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(*) Prior to publication of today’s missive, it became apparent to me that the FSB have infiltrated the IT systems at CC Towers when I received this warning:

“Ах, мистер Тиммис, ваши необоснованные обвинения зафиксированы. Президент Путин был уведомлен. Таблетки с радиоактивным ядом уже в пути. Аллилуйя великой Революции и миллиардам долларов, которые мы накопили на счетах в швейцарских банках! Сейчас я направляюсь на свою суперяхту с девочками, которые немного моложе меня.

Ta ta, old bean."

The CCC’s Russian correspondent, fluent in the native language natch, is a mere phone call away if you are struggling with some of the words above.