23rd September 2024 > > US politics.

tl;dr

A couple of research pieces shed some interesting light on the potential effects of the US presidential election in November. Kamala Harris speaks of cryptos for the first time, and we like what she has said. Is it goodbye to Warren and Gensler? Oh, I do hope so.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

That is a bright start to the week as BTC investors eye up an assault on a price of $65k. In the spirit of this mood of optimism, let me cherry pick one techie’s view:

Doesn’t mean anything of course in the real world but I am just in too good a mood to let it slip by.

Occasional Series – Sir Keir Free Gear Starmer

There is a very simple solution to this self-inflicted problem that the three most important politicians in the UK have brought upon themselves, for reasons that can only be due to greed or stupidity. Neither of which is a good look, especially if you have so vociferously set out a moral stance on such matters in the past.

The solution is to simply state that all these gifts are treated as a benefit-in-kind and that these gifts will be taxed as such for the last tax year and going forward.

End of discussion.

The additional benefits of such an approach are that on the one hand you don’t get David Lammy bleating on, and on the other, you prevent Diane Abbott (my MP and unreconstructed zero covid advocate) from holding the moral high ground, a situation which in all fairness she is not overly familiar with.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Alliance Bernstein research

Analysts at Alliance Bernstein have put out a research piece with their views on the likely trajectory of crypto prices following the US Presidential election in November, and it is not pleasing to most.

First up is a Trump victory. Trump’s opportunistic pivot from naysayer to wanting the US to become the “BTC and crypto capital of the world” must be taken at face value. His desire to fire Gensler on “day one” is a promise he probably cannot keep, though we hope that Gensler will resign in protest.

In this scenario, the analysts put a range of $80k to $90k by year-end.

If Kamala Harris wins, the situation is a little less clear. She has appointed Anthony Scaramucci as an advisor, and he is most definitely pro-crypto, for he can smell the money a mile off, hence his success in the financial markets. However, the report states in bald terms:

“While crypto industry leaders have been more open-minded with the Harris campaign, and are hoping for a more constructive policy, we expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide.”

Their conclusion? A painful return to $30k - $40k by year-end. And no-one wants to see that happen.

…

I would caution that the actual numbers here are merely indicative – short-term price predictions are impossible to make with any degree of accuracy by anyone. The key point is the wide disparity in expected performance between the two possible results of the election, which is still too close to call according to the polls and the betting markets, with the latter slightly skewed in favour of Harris.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – VanEck research

Analysts at VanEck have put out a research piece on the likely trajectory of crypto prices following the US Presidential election in November, and it is rather pleasing to everyone:

“We think that while Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are bullish for Bitcoin, each presents more nuanced implications for the broader digital asset markets. Both administrations will likely maintain fiscal spending if not further accelerate, which could lead to further quantitative easing — especially if exacerbated by anti-business policies.”

I have been saying for a long time that QE will soon be foisted upon us again. Until now, nearly everyone has laughed in my face when I have said so. Not for much longer.

The analysts believe that a Harris presidency will be better for BTC as “… Bitcoin’s unique regulatory clarity will likely make it even more competitive than other digital assets." In contrast “We believe a Trump presidency is generally bullish for the entire crypto ecosystem, as it would likely produce more deregulation and business-friendly policies — perhaps particularly so for crypto entrepreneurs, who regulators have increasingly scrutinized in the past four years.”

They conclude with a statement of truth:

“Regardless of the election outcome the trend of growing fiscal deficits and rising national debt will likely continue. This suggests a weakening of the U.S. dollar, a macroeconomic environment in which Bitcoin has historically thrived.”

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – And finally Harris speaks of cryptos

Both of these research pieces were published before Harris had made any public statement on the topic of cryptos, leaving us in the dark as to the strength or otherwise of the Warren anti-crypto army in the event of a Harris presidency.

That has now changed.

In Manhattan yesterday Harris said:

“We will partner together to invest in America’s competitiveness, to invest in America’s future. We will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors.”

That use of the word “encourage” suggests that the Biden era of outright hostility to cryptos is now over regardless of the outcome of November’s election. We can now look forward to increasing competition between Harris and Trump as to who will be the most crypto friendly.

See you later Warren and Gensler, you will not be missed.

Oh happy, happy days.