23rd March 2026 > > Central bankers.
- 2 hours ago
- 3 min read
tl;dr
There is always a positive way of looking at adverse financial events.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
Stocks, bonds, and precious metals are all selling off as the clock ticks down towards Trump’s latest threats to Iran if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Cryptos do not remain immune from wholesale investor panic.
Curious Cryptos’ meme corner
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Please, just stop lying all the time
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Well, this is a little bit embarrassing
You will recall (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/12th-march-2026-the-quantum-threat-central-banks-the-uk) that the CCC laid out very simply and very plainly the blatant incompetence shown by central bankers when faced with a common enough problem – an inflation shock created by an oil price increase, this time from a war that currently looks to have no end in sight. It is obvious to everyone that raising interest rates in response to an oil price increase has zero impact on the measure of inflation in the near-term and simply adds to the downward pressure on economic activity in the medium term. Such a wilful display of economic self-harm should be met not just with opprobrium, but with instantaneous dismissal with no compensation for incompetence and withdrawal of all accrued pension rights, which is the real reason why anyone aspires to a technocratic job working for the government.
I can’t think of one central banker ever who did not or would not make this mistake of raising rates in response to an oil price shock.
…
Within twenty-four hours of publication I stumbled across an academic piece of work titled “Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks”:
This paper thoroughly agrees with my analysis. The conclusion is that:
“Substantively, our results suggest that an important part of the effect of oil price shocks on the economy results not from the change in oil prices, per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy.”
Delighted that I had reached the same damning indictment of central bankers in a few hundred words at most, rather than these dense sixty-six pages of intense research, I was feeling quite chipper.
Until I noticed that the lead author is non other than Ben S. Bernanke, who was Chair of the Fed from February 2006 to January 2014. It seems that not all central bankers are as useless as I have been making out all these years, which is both embarrassing, and a little humbling.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The hapless and useless Andrew Bailey
It didn’t take long for my previous conviction about central bankers to be restored once the Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, started musing on his response to the oil price shock. Yep, you know it. He wants to raise interest rates convinced as he is that the Mullahs (without whom the world would be a safer and better place) will back down and reopen the Strait of Hormuz when they realise that sterling short-term rates will increase by twenty-five basis points very soon if they don’t. So convinced as he is of his own righteousness, UK futures are now pricing in four BoE rate hikes in 2026. If that comes to pass, a deep and long-lasting UK recession is all but guaranteed, putting greater pressure on the parlous nature of the UK’s fiscal position. Bailey is a mistake we could well do without.
The same musings are being echoed by the Fed. Our current crop of central bankers is determined to turn a short-lived inflation shock that is outside of their control into a long and lasting growth shock. As the probability of a growth shock rises, then expectations for a rapid reversal from central banks, allied with hidden QE, will be a boon for all hard assets.
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