22nd August 2024 > > Politics & cryptos.

tl;dr

BTC remains in the boring zone, but that probably won’t last long, not least due to political factors outside of our control.

Market Snap

Market Wrap (UK)

With sterling rallying hard, the fiat value of our crypto bags which are priced in dollars is losing ground even as BTC rallies.

Sterling’s strength might possibly be assigned to markets being favourable towards inflation-busting pay rises across the public sector (even backdating pay increases for train drivers who are no longer employed as train drivers), the loosening of regulations preventing unions from crippling industry, shutting down our domestic oil and gas industry to support production in the Middle East, and the imminent imposition of a raft of wealth taxes, perhaps irrevocably damaging the nation’s productivity, and driving investment overseas. Alternatively, as all these measures are severely inflation-inducing, sterling’s strength is simply a forecast of interest rate rises in the UK, and in the UK alone.

It all depends on your point of view.

Market Wrap

Polymarket has Trump 53% with Harris on 46% as it is rumoured that independent candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. will drop out and endorse Trump for his pro-crypto pivot. Polls continue to show Harris in the lead but by less than the 5% or so that intend to vote for Kennedy. BTC’s price will remain sensitive to these political developments – see below for more.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Senate Banking Committee

One of the most powerful political institutions, the Senate Banking Committee is dominated by the majority party of the Senate. Sherrod Brown is the leader of the committee, and though he is not as publicly vocal in his crypto criticism as some others, he is not a supporter of our industry. Elizabeth Warren sits on the committee too, complacently believing that her anti-crypto army has any long-term substance to it. One of our heroines, Cynthis Lummis, has this to say about Brown and Warren:

"They've been extremely influential with their colleagues on the Democrat side of the aisle, so we've hit the wall on the banking committee."

Tim Scott sits on the committee too, as the senior member of the minority party. He has been touted as being made the leader if the majority in the Senate changes hands. Tim is talking our language when he puts forward a key idea of his, if he takes the wheel:

"Wouldn't it be kind of cool if we had a subcommittee on the banking committee that focuses on the (crypto) industry so that we bring more light to the conversation, more hearings on the industry, so that we get things done faster."

A pro-crypto subcommittee working on bringing in targeted regulation for the crypto industry is exactly what we need. If you take away the threat of a Presidential veto, then it is plain as to why Republican gains in the election will be positive for crypto prices.

Note this is not an endorsement of any party, or any candidate, for the CCC remains fiercely apolitical. It is simply a comment on the current state of affairs.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Let’s stick with the politics

Public Citizen is a not-for-profit organisation that claims to be politically neutral (I wonder how it stacks up against the gold standard of political neutrality, the CCC itself) with a laudable objective of encouraging transparency in the workings of government, industry, and the legal profession. It places itself firmly on the side of the consumer, so I make the assumption it has to be crypto-friendly, otherwise it is selling a big bag of porky fibs.

It has just issued a report on the industry financing of political campaigning in the US this year:

https://www.citizen.org/article/big-crypto-big-spending-2024/

In short, out of the $248mm of corporate money nearly half has come from crypto companies, a total of $119mm. The two largest contributors won’t surprise you – Coinbase Inc. and Ripple Labs, Inc.

If you are a supporter of cryptos, and believe in democracy, freedom, and liberty, then this finding sounds like good news. Unfortunately, it seems that my earlier assumption about Public Citizen doesn’t hold water:

“This tsunami of corporate crypto cash is a brazen and unprecedented attempt by for-profit businesses to force their private, pecuniary priorities ahead of the public interest.

For Americans hopeful the federal government will prioritize their interest in a stable economy and crack down on Ponzi-like schemes and scams, crypto’s corporate influence corrupting our political process can only be for worse.”

The report goes on to repeat tired old tropes about money-laundering and Ponzi schemes, as if these are unique to the crypto world.

I won’t be signing up to Public Citizen anytime soon.