21st June 2025 > > Central bankers & Revolut.
- Mark Timmis
- Jun 21
- 5 min read
tl;dr
Central bankers – I mean, wtf? Revolut shows TradFi the only way forward.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
BTC briefly threatened $107k yesterday before a short, sharp move down from which it has not yet recovered. I don’t believe there is a specific reason for that, just the inherent volatility in a relatively new asset. Risk markets in general remain unphased by the ongoing situation in the Middle East, safe in the knowledge that politicians will always resort to juicing the markets in any adverse circumstances.
Curious Cryptos’ meme corner – Central bankers
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Central bankers
We have been living in the age for a generation or two now in which central bankers have somehow positioned themselves at the heart of politics, without ever having to do the hard work of actually standing for election themselves. This situation has been enabled by politicians of all stripes who have increasingly delegated difficult decisions to so-called “arms-length” bodies, to distance themselves from any potential downside. The fact that the members of the “arms-length” bodies are chosen by the politicians themselves is conveniently ignored in any conversation subsequent to the dysfunctional decision-making by those unelected bureaucrats.
Consider the hapless Andrew Bailey whose only contribution to society was making one of the world’s leading regulators, the UK’s FCA, into a laughing stock in just a few short years. Convicted Criminal Christine Lagarde needs no introduction. No Japanese Central Banker would ever contemplate doing other than what he (they are always male) was told. But you know all of this already, after reading the rogue’s gallery of central bankers published right here in the CCC earlier this year (links below).
I have been told that sometimes my focus on this topic is more personal than it should be. That I should prosecute my case with a greater emphasis on why the concept of central bankers manipulating markets as cover for their political masters, when such manipulation would lead to lengthy jail sentences in any other context, is so dreadfully wrong on so many levels.
The answer to that is simple – no-one should ever set any interest rates at all. The world would be a much better place, if only we left those decisions to the market. That much is surely obvious. If you need convincing of this truth, then I am not sure anyone can help you, to be honest.
More importantly, when you have unelected officials raised to the some of the highest offices of the land, who make decisions that impact upon our personal financial wellbeing, their intellect, their emotional understanding, their personal motivations, and all of the flaws they exhibit in all of those areas are of intense interest to all of us. And if anyone claims otherwise, then their liberal credentials need some serious questioning, for they are beholden to the concept of the technocratic elite. They are not on our side, those of us for whom freedom, liberty, and privacy are to be cherished, and not cast aside at the first signs of mere inconvenience.
…
This week, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed, decided to leave short-term interest rates unchanged, a decision that had a 99% probability given the short-dated interest rate futures prices.
It is public knowledge that Trump has been railing against Powell for some time now, demanding a 1% cut in the short-term rate. Some would claim that this shows that Powell is independent of his political master, and superficially that might seem to be the case, if your knowledge was limited and uncurious. There has been plenty of evidence to the contrary over the last number of years, and to ascribe a sudden desire to do the right thing in Powell’s mind simply stretches credibility beyond the pale.
All of which means that financial markets and investment decisions are made harder by the shenanigans going on between Trump and Powell. Be in no doubt, that uncertainty raises the cost of capital for all businesses, reducing productivity, and making us all poorer.
…
Powell’s time is up in May 2026, and I am quietly confident he will not be nominated again. I am also more than quietly confident that his successor will have no greater insight or ability than Powell himself, and will continue the habit of making wrong decisions at every turn.
But here is the kicker.
The new Chair of the Fed will be Trump’s pick. You may like that or not, but it is a fact. He will be doveish, even uber doveish. Monetary conditions in the US are going to be transformed. I think that is probably as wrong as Powell’s current stance, but it is what it is.
All other things being equal, risk assets will fly from next July.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Revolut
I have long been an enthusiastic user of Revolut’s banking services. The ability to spend sterling in almost any other currency in most countries of the world with no fees, and priced at the wholesale mid-market exchange rate, was a transformative move that has personally saved me a shedload of cash over the years.
With that as Revolut’s original and groundbreaking USP, you will not be surprised to hear that the company is in talks to launch its own dollar-denominated stablecoin, taking advantage of the regulatory clarity that will soon be provided by the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins).
This isn’t Revolut’s first foray into the crypto world. For a long time, you have been able to buy and sell a number of different coins directly within the app in the UK. It also launched its own centralised cryptocurrency exchange Revolut X (a white label of the engine behind the world’s biggest exchange, Binance, and therefore accessing the liquidity offered by Binance) in the EU under the new MiCA rules. The company clearly states that:
“We have a clear mission to become the most trusted and accessible provider of crypto asset services in the UK, EEA, and eventually beyond. We’re keen to further grow our crypto offering with a compliance-first approach.”
Disruptors to the cosy banking cartel are few and far between. Revolut is a stand-out example that despite the barriers to entry raised by overly excessive regulation partly encouraged by the incumbents themselves, an innovative entrant with a sharp focus on reducing costs for its customers can become a major player. When such companies make a virtue out of their adoption of the crypto revolution, the old guard will be forced to follow.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Rogue’s gallery of Central Bankers
Recent Posts
See Alltl;dr An overview of the rapid growth of Bitcoin Strategic Reserves. A short discussion about contagion risk from the growing number of...
tl;dr We are on the cusp of new crypto spot ETFs being launched on a range of cryptos that will include in-kind redemptions and staking,...
tl;dr A crypto reserve SPAC could be an interesting investment opportunity for some. The race to be the next Mayor of NYC has opened a...
Comments