20th September 2022 > > ETH hard fork. Again.

tl;dr

Another ETH hard fork update. I promise we will move onto something new soon.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Big reversal in perpetual futures funding rates which I erroneously reported yesterday as +0.0094% instead of -0.0094%. Apologies.

We saw an uptick in stocks late yesterday, putting cryptos back into the green. $20k looms once more in the front windscreen.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – A positive price prediction

Amidst all the doom and gloom, let’s cheer ourselves up with a quote from Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg:

“Bitcoin to me, it’s a matter of time before it gets to $100,000. The key fact is that adoption and demand are increasing unless you expect that to reverse, which I don’t think (is going to happen). It (the price of BTC) will continue to appreciate; it’s just a matter of time right now.”

Which is nice, but the timeframe he gives is 2025, which is a touch too long for my liking.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – ETH hard fork update

I know we keep revisiting this subject, but the landscape keeps changing, and in the world of cryptos there is no definitive “how to” guide, unless of course one reads the CCC.

As ever, a brief recap is in order. However, if you are not up to speed with The Merge, or the Proof-of-Work hard forks (of which there are two), a quick perusal of recent CCCs (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/blog) will do you no end of good.

The Merge went without a hitch. Owners of ETH pre The Merge are in the exact same position after The Merge.

Except for those who held ETH in self-custodial wallets, and in some centralised exchanges. The CCC dated 17th September has more details (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/17th-september-2022-2-eth-hard-forks) which I will not repeat here.

For owners of ETH who fall into certain categories, you are now also the proud owners of ETHW (ETH PoW) and ETF (Ethereum Fair). We have seen how to display your new coins in MetaMask (again https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/17th-september-2022-2-eth-hard-forks) and we looked at how to monetise ETHW (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/18th-september-2022-eth-hard-fork).

I must repeat here the warning about the possibility of a replay attack. I have heard reports of replay attacks, but these have been ascribed to incorrect (and fake) Chain Ids.

Whatever. Best practice if you want to sell ETHW is to move your ETH to a new wallet, or to a centralised exchange first. If that seems too much hassle, just write off the value of ETHW. Ignore it. Pretend it never happened.

…

I have also been asked about ETF, and what one should do about it. With ETHW currently trading around $6 on a few centralised exchanges, the situation around ETF is somewhat murkier.

Huobi has a market priced at $1.39. Deposits require an extraordinary 120 network confirmations, but I can only assume this is legit. If I get around to selling my ETF today, I will let you know how I get on.

Poloniex has a market priced around $4.70, suggesting an arbitrage opportunity, and a juicy one at that.

Unfortunately, Poloniex does not allow for the deposit or withdrawal of ETF meaning that this market is a synthetic one requiring collateral. On further digging I found a press release in which Poloniex stated that they have rebranded ETHW to ETF on their site, suggesting to me that they don’t really understand that these are two different coins on two different blockchains. Perhaps I should send their CEO a complimentary copy of the CCC to help him/her/they out?

This confusion will explain the price of $4.70, which is not far from the real median price of ETF and ETHW. Sellers of ETF on Poloniex in synthetic form believe the press release. Buyers of ETF on Poloniex in synthetic form believe that Poloniex will reverse their incorrect decision. Given an average price of $3.70, it is the buyers on Poloniex who are currently winning that argument.