19th February 2026 > > Glassnode & the quantum threat.

tl;dr

Glassnode provides a different context to the one Arthur Hayes gave us yesterday. The quantum threat is overhyped, but there are practical measures you can take today. Or rather, tomorrow. Read on for details.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Spot BTC ETFs flows remain overwhelmingly negative, preventing any meaningful price recovery with the added threat of more downside towards the psychologically important level of $50k.

I saw some paid-for research today which obviously I cannot share with you, except in one very broad sense. ETF flows over the last few months have been away from risk-on growth assets and into defensive ETFs, not least gold. That is a broad market reallocation of capital, and is not a trend we can fight against, until we can.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Market analysis

Following on from Arthur Hayes’ upbeat (isn’t it always, I hear you ask) assessment (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/16th-february-2026-arthur-hayes-staking-etfs) for the medium-term outlook for the price of BTC, I thought it might be instructive to look at Glassnode’s weekly analysis based on blockchain data and market positioning:

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-07-2026/

The headline says it all:

“Range-Bound Under Pressure” which neatly sums up the CCC market view IF we assume that the four-year cycle remains intact, though I haven’t quite yet given up on the thesis that it is dead and buried despite current evidence suggesting I have been wrong about this for the last year or more.

Glassnode begins with the observation that during bear market phases (if that is indeed a description of current times) two valuation anchors frame the range for an extended period of chop:

True Market Mean – aggregate cost basis of active supply currently priced at $79k.

Realised Price – the average acquisition cost of all circulating coins currently priced at $55k.

Note this analysis has zero in common with the snake-oil salesmen pushing technical analysis as a super-efficient means of losing your hard-earned wealth by being eaten alive by the sharks in the perpetual futures markets. What Glassnode is claiming is that for the medium-term, whilst BTC remains range-bound (that could be into 2027 unfortunately) historical precedent suggests that the price may well stay within these two boundaries.

In that light, my decision to post cheeky bids at $55k, $50k, and $45k, has been validated. Note that it seems relatively likely to me that any push towards $50k will be met with panicked sellers that will temporarily take us out of the expected range. But I must make this plain – that is no more than a comment on my personal buying plan. I would certainly never dream of encouraging anyone to follow in my footsteps.

…

There is one very positive element to this latest report which looks at which price zone was met with sustained demand from buyers taking coins from panicking speculative investors, reaching this conclusion:

“The defense of the $60k–$69k range suggests that medium-term holders remain resilient, allowing the market to transition from impulsive decline into range-bound absorption.”

Perhaps those cheeky bids of mine are just a touch too cheeky, which would be a shame.

Glassnode also looks at some other more technical factors which you can read for yourself but need not detain us here. There is one comment, which will be familiar to regular readers of the CCC:

“With ETF demand no longer providing a reliable cushion beneath the market, downside risk remains elevated, and any recovery attempts are likely to struggle unless netflows stabilize and re-accelerate into sustained inflows.”

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The quantum threat

We are still many years away from a realistic quantum threat to cryptos, encrypted email, website server certificates, OS updates (Windows & Mac), most if not all IoT devices, some forms of interbank payments, and a whole host of other applications without which the modern world would simply cease to function.

I can’t help you with keeping your emails safe (no-one can – mass murderer Xi and his genocidal henchmen are already hard at work harvesting as much encrypted data about each one of us to decrypt at a later date) but I can help you with your crypto stash. I will try to make it as untechnical and as practical as possible. Tune in tomorrow for your personal toolkit to keep your BTC bags safe.