18th November 2025 > > Stuff & the four-year cycle.

tl;dr

Rugby, the BBC tax, Bailey, Covid, and why I might be wrong about one thing, but certainly not about the first four topics of today’s missive.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

My cheeky $89k bid got filled this morning, which is nice. We discuss below if this is a temporary aberration or if we should expect further declines. Spoiler alert: no-one knows, but if you want to play, you must have a view.

Nvidia reports this week which might possibly trigger a violent reaction one direction or the other for both stocks and cryptos.

The outstanding interest for perps continues to decline following the pain taken by the leveraged children on both sides in recent times. That is unlikely to reverse going into year-end and is patently obviously a good thing.

Occasional Series – For those of a sensitive disposition, look away now (*)

Henry Pollock is our man:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7w6Yx20WVW0

That’s a true warrior, right there.

Occasional Series – The BBC tax

I think it should be at least £500 a year, probably more. £100 a month sounds reasonable to me.

Occasional Series – The hapless Bailey

To bring some degree of impartiality to the CCC, I have looked far and wide for a flattering photograph of the world’s most incompetent central banker bar none, beating even Mark Carney to that crown to literally everyone’s surprise – our very own Andrew Bailey.

This photo is the best I can do. Unfortunately for the hapless Bailey, being caught pointing in a direction to which one is not looking sums up everything that is wrong with the leadership at the Bank of England.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Covid lockdown

Those who illegally took away our liberty and freedom, those who have no morals at all, will still not admit to their heinous crimes. They will not admit that they enabled domestic abuse, physical and sexual. They will not admit that they destroyed our children’s education. They will not admit the havoc they wreaked on our economy, and the nation’s finances. They will not admit that they taught a large cohort of the working population that they no longer must work simply because they do not want to.

Hang your heads, because the shame is on you. And you know it.

I know I am fighting the right fight.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The four-year cycle

Once every four years, the BTC reward paid to miners is reduced by 50%, currently sitting at 3.125 BTC per block, a material reduction from the 50 BTC per block when BTC was launched. This supply shock has in the past led to parabolic price increases for BTC, usually about a year after the halving. Each cycle has in the past stuck closely to the following playbook:

-          Accumulation phase during which smart money accumulates BTC.

-          Bull run as later entrants enter the market.

-          Distribution phase as the smart money exits.

-          Bear market characterised by a significant drawdown, and a period of sideways action.

Note that during the bull run, drawdowns of up to 50% are common, and are not in themselves indicative of a local market top.

It is a matter of public record that I am firmly convinced that the four-year cycle no longer applies, largely because of the ever-diminishing impact of the halving as the supply shock lessens relative to the number of issued coins. There is also the institutionalisation of BTC, which I believe will counter the volatility created by retail speculators. The current drop from $126k to $89k, though close to 30%, is nothing out of the ordinary.

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I still think that is all broadly correct, but certain on-chain indicators suggest that I might be wrong, especially the drip-flow of BTC from whales to recent market entrants. If in fact the cycle is still intact a drawdown of 70% from the recent local high of $126k would take us all the way down to $40k, which probably sounds scary to some. Typically, bear markets last around a year, which might imply a very disappointing 2026.

Of course, you know what I will be doing if the cycle remains intact – I will keep buying all the way down, and all the way up again. Bear markets are not scary for long-term investors with real conviction. Instead, they present an opportunity that should not be missed.

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(*) Yes, that does include all the lanyardistas out there.