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18th March 2024 > > The halving & memecoins.


tl;dr

Some halving claims that are probably not true. Memecoin madness ramps up again.


Market Snap








Market Wrap

And the leveraged buyers are back, setting us up for another long squeeze at some point.

President Bukele of El Salvador has announced the country will buy 1 BTC a day. There was a time when us folk could have done the same.


Occasional Series – Offside

Clearly, I have no dog in the game – Watford FC’s recent form is setting us up for relegation from the Championship next season – but some debates are nonsense. This is not a tight offside decision it is just wrong.















There is an easy solution – draw a thicker line and give the benefit to the attacking team.


Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The halving

Now just over a month away, you will see two bold claims made about the halving, when the reward per block will reduce from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The first is that we should expect a major sell-off by up to 40% before the halving, giving a price around $43k, and that we will see a dramatic rally because of the halving. This graph from rektcapital is the basis for these claims:













BTC market cap is nearly eight times what it was back in 2020. The asset class has matured, with ever increasing institutional ownership – volatility is never going to be the same as it was back then. This doesn’t mean we won’t see a sell-off. Indeed, we have just had one of 10% from the ATH, driven largely by the unwinding of leveraged longs, who are back in the game. But it might also be the case that this was the sell-off pre-halving and it might not happen again.


As for the second claim, it is right in substance but wrong in cause. A supply reduction of just 450 coins per day in the face of the massive buying from ETFs is marginal.

 

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Memecoin madness

After all the recent successes of some memecoins, I thought that the incredible runup of BOME (Book of Meme) that was launched just three days was surely the top. BOME now has a market cap of $1.2bn, has been listed on several exchanges, and even has 10x leveraged perps.

But how about this:



A memecoin without a name as of yet raised $30mm pre-sale in twenty-four hours.

Or another one called … NOTHING:



In total, Solano based memecoins have raised $100mm in the last three days via pre-sales, many of which will simply be scams, most will fail, and a very small number may do OK.


Madness, sheer and utter madness.

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