18th March 2022 > > Glassnode analytics.

tl;dr

Glassnode analytics continue to paint a very mixed picture

Market Snap (at time of writing)

Market Wrap

All calm heading into the weekend.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – We all know this feeling

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Glassnode analytics

It’s always fun to dive into Glassnode’s weekly on-chain analytics report, for me at least. What’s that you say? Get a life?

https://insights.glassnode.com/

For some time now, their analysis has been very mixed, and continues in much the same vein.

The recent common themes have been about negative short-term indicators, and more positive long-term indicators. Note that their investigations of chain activity to gain some insight into potential future market moves is a whole world away from the snake-oil that is technical analysis (TA).

The key takeaways this week are these.

This graph shows that older coins are being spent at a higher level. It is generally assumed that older coins are held by investors with more experience and more knowledge of BTC. These are perhaps the stronger hands and if so, this metric is looking undoubtedly bearish.

Short-term holders (STHs) are statistically the most likely to sell coins during periods of market volatility. This is even more true when capitulation events occur. STH supply is near all-time lows suggesting that these weaker hands have yet to fold, even though 82% of them are held at a loss. It seems very possible that this cohort could add significant sell-side pressure if the macro environment deteriorates much further.

Finally, a bit of good news. Centralised exchanges, and Coinbase in particular, have seen large net outflows. This is an indication that holders are moving coins off-exchange and into cold storage. This situation can reverse very quickly but is suggestive of long-term support for BTC at current price levels.