16th November 2024 > > Pricing & Gensler.

tl;dr

Wen $100k? Not yet, matey. Gensler hints at stepping down, which will be huge for crypto markets.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Look at XRP go! A near doubling in a week leaves it careering on the brink of breaching a dollar to the upside. XRP is one of the stand-out winners from the recent US elections, and this price action is reflecting that fact.

Jerome Powell has been pontificating on the probable future direction of short-term interest rates, dealing a blow to equity markets. Powell, like every other central banker worldwide, has proved himself both incompetent and dishonest, by his actions over the last few years. A period of silence from the likes of him would not go amiss.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – That $100k price we all want to see

My personal view is that it is going to be difficult to break into three figures. I mean we will, and then some, that is a given, but the timing is not just yet.

I think there will be a wall of sell-side liquidity between $97k and $99k which will take some work to clear. Maybe it will take some months. That wall will be largely created by some very long-term holders. For instance, here is evidence of 50 BTC mined all the way back in 2010 that was moved yesterday to Coinbase:

In total, this owner moved 2,000 BTC all dating from 2010 to Coinbase, presumably to sell. With a value close to $200mm that is a notable pay-day for anyone but Elon Musk. I think it is wrong in the extreme that the government thinks it has the right to take any of that cash, but I suspect a few people may not agree with me on that point.

We will see more of these original Satoshi Era coins awakening, though most won’t be as blatantly for sale as these ones. They will largely make their way into the OTC market to be bought privately by the spot BTC ETF market-makers (APs or “authorized participants”) to hedge sales of the ETFs to institutional investors.

Whilst this overhang is cleared, perhaps by the end of Q1 2025, do not be surprised if we see a drawdown or two, perhaps into the 70s or even 60s. That will not change the overarching narrative that BTC adoption has only just started getting going.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Gary Gensler, Chair of the SEC

This might be wishful thinking, but a speech Gensler gave yesterday at the PLS’s 56th Annual Institute on Securities Regulation in New York (apparently a sell-out event) has sparked speculation he could be about to resign:

https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/gensler-remarks-pli-s-56th-annual-institute-securities-regulation-111424

In particular, two comments he made that have been confirmed in the press release above, do have the tone of someone who is moving on:

“It’s been a great honor to serve with them, doing the people’s work, and ensuring that our capital markets remain the best in the world.”

“I’ve been proud to serve with my colleagues at the SEC who, day in and day out, work to protect American families on the highways of finance.”

That will be a big day for cryptos when he does step down. Perhaps that $100k barrier is not as insurmountable in the short-term as I make it out to be.

Suffice to say, he will not be missed.