14th November 2025 > > Spot XRP ETF & the EU.
- Mark Timmis
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
tl;dr
Whether the four-year cycle is dead or not, has become a pressing question. The first spot XRP ETF got off to a fine start. Privacy on a scale never experienced is now within our grasp, all the more remarkable as it is the EU that is the driving force.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
That’s the first time since 8th May this year that the CCC market wrap has reported a five-figure price for BTC, though there have been a few breaches intraday to the downside of late. Yesterday witnessed a near $1bn outflow from the spot BTC ETFs, most likely from relatively recent buyers. The short-term holders’ break-even price is at $112k. The latecomers are often the first to bail when faced with price weakness. The question to ponder is whether my conviction that the four-year cycle no longer applies is valid, or whether I am wrong on that point. If I am wrong, a retracement to $70k seems possible.
What I do know for certain is that when we were trading at $120k plus, anyone not holding BTC would have been dreaming of buying at any price less than $100k. But when push comes to shove, that opportunity will now be spurned, only to be regretted later when we make new ATHs once more.
In the short-term, futures pricing suggests a less than 50% chance of a rate-cut in December. The annual Santa Claus rally looks a distant prospect.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Spot XRP ETF
The first spot XRP ETF gained approval on Wednesday and started trading yesterday:
On the first day of trading, $245mm of inflows were recorded, which is a good start, especially in the current risk-off environment.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The EU
Fresh from the success of adopting MiCA, the EU is branching out again into the digital space with its Digital Identity Wallet Regulation:
The vision is a simple one – an electronic wallet that stores “national IDs, driver’s licenses and health credentials on mobile devices”. I assume that in the future, a digital wallet will be used to gain access to services, employment, education, and so on. It will be used as the primary means of identification for KYC and AML rules, speeding up one of the most bureaucratic, though necessary, processes currently in place.
The step after that becomes more interesting. With the acceptance and adoption of cryptos throughout the EU because of MiCA, this new regulation around digital identity can easily and safely be rolled out to Web3 wallets, making identification as simple as simply signing a message that proves you are the owner of wallet (i.e. you are in possession of the private key/seed phrase). This is more secure than the current procedure of accepting a passport as proof of identity, for they can be faked.
Combine this functionality with zero-knowledge proof technology (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-knowledge_proof) and the utopian world of proving your identity without sharing any information about yourself comes tantalisingly within reach.
The crypto revolution promises privacy and liberty on a scale never previously experienced by humankind, and for that we must be grateful.
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I am surprised as everyone else that the normally sclerotic approach taken towards innovation by the EU does not seem to apply to the digital/crypto space, but like y’all, I am very pleased that is the case.
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