14th July 2023 > > Good news day.

tl;dr

XRP vs SEC. Glassnode reports cheering on-chain metrics. Google begins its crypto adoption strategy. And the CCC will be off-line for a few days …

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Well, well, well.

Ripple 3 SEC 1:

“Defendants’ motion for summary judgment is GRANTED as to the Programmatic Sales, the Other Distributions, and Larsen’s and Garlinghouse’s sales, and DENIED as to the Institutional Sales.”

This is clearly not the end of the story with lawyers already working out their appeal lines of attack, but it is a major boon for XRP and the wider market. XRP nearly doubled shortly afterwards and BTC got very close to the target of $32k which would have shredded the leveraged shorts.

However, shorts (rightly) got scared, closed voluntarily without forced liquidations, and perpetual future funding rates are back to neutral.

Occasional Series – Old school neon resplendent proper rave in the woods …

… starts today and probably finishes later in the week than it should.

See you on the other side.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Glassnode Analytics

In their latest report (https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-28-2023/) Glassnode make much of this graph:

“Bitcoin prices have reached the $30k 'mid-point' of the 2021-22 cycle, with several metrics approaching levels associated with the 're-accumulation period' seen in past cycles.”

Jargon is jargon, so what exactly does the graph and commentary mean? Let me break it down for you.

75% of total supply is now in-profit and 25% is in-loss. The same ratio as we saw mid-cycle in 2016 and mid-cycle in 2019. This is also the equilibrium point for BTC – 50% of all trading days have seen a higher Profit-to-Loss ratio, and 50% a lower one. Give or take obviously.

In past cycles, this re-accumulation phase has occurred after the capitulation, which increasingly appears to have happened at the back end of last year in the mid-teens. Gloriously, this was a time when our Curious Cryptos’ community was furiously buying.

The re-accumulation phase is characterised by sideways, yet volatile, price action for several months.

Glassnode’s conclusion is that we may need “… a similar lengthy and choppy process”.

…

But I am not so sure that is correct.

History doesn’t tell us what will happen in the future, but if you believe it is a guide, then it seems we have had our lengthy, sideways, and volatile market. It is now four months since we breached $25k to the upside. The trading range of $25 to $31k represents 25% of the base price.

That’s all the boxes ticked.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Google Play

For owners of Android smartphones, apps downloaded from Google Play can now incorporate cryptos for buying, selling, and earning as rewards in-game:

https://android-developers.googleblog.com/2023/07/new-blockchain-based-content-opportunities-google-play.html

“Today, we’re pleased to share that we’re updating our policy to open new ways to transact blockchain-based digital content within apps and games on Google Play. From reimagining traditional games with user-owned content to boosting user loyalty through unique NFT rewards, we’re excited to see creative in-app experiences flourish and help developers expand their businesses.”

I haven’t been a gamer since I left school (with the notable exception of Doom) so the whole play-to-earn arena remains obscure to me.

What is clear is that this initiative will introduce many new people to the world of cryptos. Google Play would not be doing this if it did not think it is what its end-customers, and its app developers, want to do.

More exposure, more adoption, more usage.

You can see where I am going with this.