13th November 2024 > > Some price observations.

tl;dr

What with all the excitement of nearly breaching $90k, let’s step back a little from the micro, and look at a couple of macro factors.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

I thought that the wall of sellers would likely be in the $97k - $99k range but it looks as though the advance guard is set firmly at $90k. No stress, it’s just a matter of time. Meanwhile, don’t forget that 20% plus drawdowns can easily happen, even in a raging bull market. Speculators get hurt in that scenario, whilst investors take advantage of the speculators’ pain.

Curious Cryptos’ meme corner

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Arthur Hayes

Arthur is always very entertaining. His analysis can be top-notch.

His latest essay touches upon many subjects that most would find uninteresting, to do with banking reserves, QE, and the movement of money. At the end of the day, his conclusion is appealing to me ($1mm per BTC), though perhaps a little undercooked.

The nub of the argument is that with Trump in charge, fiat money printing is going turbo. There is very little doubt about that. This will lead to hard asset inflation (houses, stocks, BTC), but won’t have any noticeable impact on the price of consumer staples. If you want more details, here it is:

https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/black-or-white

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Jer Ayles commented in response:

"A bald-headed bearded stranger stopped in town and went into an (sic) small old hotel to check in. He asked to go check out the rooms first so, in good faith, he left a $100 bill—a deposit of sorts—with the hotel owner.

The hotel owner immediately ran next door to pay his grocery bill.

The grocer ran it across the street to pay one of his suppliers.

The supplier used it to pay off his co-op bill.

The co-op guy ran it back across the street to pay the local hooker who had taken up residence in the aforementioned hotel.

The hooker ran it downstairs to pay her hotel bill just ahead of the returning traveler (sic), who picked the $100 bill off the desk and left saying that the rooms were not satisfactory."

The conundrum is simple to resolve, but the way it is described is a lovely sleight of hand. And Dominic, no, it has nothing to do with fractional reserve banking, that is most definitely a red herring. If anyone wants a clue, there is one below (*).

Answers, as always, on a postcard to CC Towers.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Here’s a thought

Penny stocks mostly have only one appeal – people think it is easy to double the price. That is why shysters and scammers push penny stocks. It’s nonsense of course. It doesn’t matter how many shares there are, that number of shares doesn’t affect how difficult it is for the executives of a company to double the market cap.

BTC can never undergo the equivalent of a share split. Technically yes, but the reputational damage would be too great, though it would have absolutely zero economic impact.

There is a price limit above which retail investors will baulk. I don’t know where that is, but psychology often defeats rational analysis.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – But before we get to that price point

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(*) The stranger is an unwitting and unknowing lubricant who sorts out other peoples’ problems.