13th February 2025 > > CFTC & Cathie Wood.

tl;dr

The CFTC is advertising its pro-crypto pivot to the sceptics. Cathie Wood is a woman for our times – “Big Ideas 2025” is well worth a read.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

$500mm of outflows from the spot BTC ETFs this week is disappointing. Yesterday’s catalyst was strong economic numbers and more hawkish comments from the Fed.

The disastrous experiment of QE has caused a huge rupture in capital markets. Inflation running at 3% p.a. with the economy growing strongly is undoubtedly a good thing, and far preferable to the alternative we see in the UK and the EU. But the overriding concern of investors now is the prospects for the return or otherwise of QE which results in asset inflation relative to the dollar. I think investors should be a bit more grown-up than that.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The CFTC

Brian Quintenz, the head of policy at Andreessen Horowitz’s (a16z) crypto division, is being lined up to head up CFTC (Commodities and Futures Trading Commission). Acting chair Caroline D. Pham (https://www.curiouscryptos.com/post/6th-february-2025-us-uk-regulatory-revolution) has already changed the culture at the CFTC from being anti-crypto to being pro. Brian is sure to continue on that path.

Brian has previously been a commissioner for the CFTC so he will get off to a flying start. Bloomberg reports:

“If confirmed, he’s expected to push for changes that could help the CFTC rise in prominence as the preferred regulator for crypto.”

When Hester Pierce’s sub-committee reports on its proposals to bring clarity and stability to the regulation of cryptos in the US, I expect we will see a declaration that BTC and ETH are commodities and not securities because of the extent of their decentralisation. If so, the CFTC will become the lead regulator for approximately 80% of the market capitalisation of the crypto world, which would be a very firm “f*** you” as a parting gift to the “arbitrary and capricious” ex-Chair of the SEC, Gary Gensler.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – We all love a bit of Cathie Wood action

One of the more prominent crypto supporters, Cathie is the founder, CEO, and CIO of Ark Invest.

She makes her views plain:

“Many people know us for our (Bitcoin) bull case, $1.5 million (by 2030). We actually think the odds have gone up that our bull case will be the right number, because of what is becoming the institutionalization of this new asset class.”

That is a cheering message on this chilly Thursday morning.

Ark Invest has published its “Big Ideas 2025” report, which has a bunch of interesting stuff in it. You can download it for free – I heartily recommend you do so:

https://www.ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2025

It’s not only about cryptos, it covers a range of topics including robotics, energy, AI agents, rockets, biological developments, and, oh yes, a load of blockchain stuff, which is what we are really interested in.

Let me share this snippet to whet your appetite: