10th September 2024 > > Miscellany.

tl;dr

Interregnum and an apology. US politics takes centre stage. A week away provides a refreshing perspective, and an important reminder.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Eight days of outflows from the ETFs have been weighing heavily on us. That losing streak was broken yesterday. Let us hope that a new winning streak is just getting going.

In eight days-time, the Fed will make plain its incompetence either by announcing a 50bp cut as a panicked response to not recognising that the US economy is under pressure, or by announcing a 25bp cut in a forlorn attempt to save face. Neither outcome will be good for risk assets, for fundamental reasons, but also mostly because nearly everyone else believes either scenario will be bullish.

Once that disappointment is out of the way, the Treasury will have the space to start pumping up dollar liquidity to support Kamala Harris’ bid to become President. Then we will see a rally in risk assets.

Occasional Series – Interregnum and an apology

Commitments away from cryptos – I know, I am surprised as you are that such a thing exists – have somewhat disrupted the publication schedule for the CCC over the past week. Normal service will be resumed by the weekend. I apologise for not warning you in advance, but do not fear, our research team’s enthusiasm for all things crypto remains as unbridled as ever.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – US politics    

Tonight is the Harris-Trump debate, a debate that is unlikely to scale any intellectual heights, or perhaps not even any intellectual molehills. But it might prove very important for the election in November, and so it might prove very important for cryptos. If Trump is seen to come out on top, the dollar liquidity pump coming our way will be given an even bigger boost.

Or perhaps there is a collective “meh” post the event. We shall shortly find out.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Recent price action

I find it very easy to get caught up in intraday price movements, and very short-term trends. So, it is interesting to note some of the crypto headlines in the last week. Just a few will suffice:

6th Sept – “Crypto market enters ‘extreme fear’ as analysts warn of Bitcoin below $50k”

7th Sept – “BTC traders brace for sub $52k price as crypto headwinds intensify”

8th Sept – “BTC ‘could very well catch fire’ as next generation of investors mature”

9th Sept – “Bitcoin traders celebrate ‘good news’ as BTC price trades above $57K”

9th Sept – “Bitcoin in ‘seasonal slog’ with slim chance of short-term price catalysts – NYDIG”

10th Sept – “Why is Bitcoin price up today?”

These are all taken from one publication, but that isn’t a criticism of that particular publication. I am trying to illustrate the fact that no-one has any clue at all about short-term price movements, whether you look at fundamentals, or squiggly lines (aka technical analysis), or the pattern of tea-leaves in the bottom of your morning cuppa. To be honest, for intra-day moves, I recommend the tea-leaves.

If you are invested in cryptos, or plan to do so, there is one very important prerequisite, apart from the obvious one that you should only invest what you can afford to lose.

You must be convinced of the long-term potential of BTC, ETH, and perhaps a few of the bigger alts. Stay focussed on that, and you will not fumble your bags. If you do not have conviction, stay away, for you will not be able to stomach the rollercoaster of crypto prices.