10th February 2024 > > Miners, DESO, & just Wow!

tl;dr

Resident techie Larry nails it. I do think you should know more about DESO. Fidelity signposts the way for all other institutional funds.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

Another good day in the crypto world has some people scratching their heads, wondering what has changed to drive a 10% rally in just three days. Read on for enlightenment.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The techies have it

Resident techie Larry put forward an interesting idea yesterday which some of you on one of the email distribution lists will have seen already:

“The BTC price post ETF has been interesting. There have been net inflows (modest but there) so all things being equal, the price should have – and mostly has – held up.

My view of the current price uptrend in BTC has a lot more to do with Miners. It goes like this:

Miners always knew they would have to sell BTC reserves to fund their halving loss of profitability. So, it becomes a question of when to sell. Too close to the halving and you are exposed to a short-term dump with no space to delay your sells. And (the risk of) all the other miners taking the same action at the same time. Too soon before the ETF and you miss out on a possible ETF pump.

So, you wait for the ETF, sell the pump and keep selling even when your collective actions make the market look like it is selling the news. Which is actually what you’re doing.”

This graph compares price against outflows from miners:

It’s pretty clear that Larry’s supposition has some legs. The message is even stronger in this graphic which is the seven-day average of miners’ outflows:

The conclusion is most definitely on the positive side:

“My thesis is that this massive spike in miner BTC sales killed what would have otherwise been a big ETF rally. But the miner sales are petering out – they pumped their sales into the ETF news – a very crowded miner trade. So, what now?

LIMITED MINER RESERVE SALES + NET ETF INFLOWS + HUGE UPTICK IN % LONG TERM HOLDER WALLETS + WHALES ACCUMULATING STRONGLY = MOON

Maybe the proper bull market just started.”

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – DESO (Decentralised Social)

It is time to talk about DESO again.

The concept is a simple one – a decentralised version of your favourite social media apps. The implementation is a touch more complex. To be honest, current adoption seems to be largely driven by the product that drove early adoption of the internet all those decades ago. You know what I mean.

Two well-timed (i.e. very lucky) investments by the CC Treasury has made DESO one of my favourite coins from a financial perspective. It turns out that buying quality projects in December 2022 – the depths of the last crypto winter – stands the test of time.

DESO is introducing a PoS validation/staking process, which is superior to all other blockchains. I will leave the judgement of that claim to those who are more technically minded than me. More information about the ecosphere here:

https://twitter.com/nadertheory/status/1755669168173838772

If you already own DESO, you might consider swapping a small amount of your bag for FOCUS, the coin that will power the community’s new app:

https://www.focus.xyz/

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Wow!

The institutions are coming. 1% is the minimum level they will all eventually allocate, but some will be up to 5%, as regular readers already know.