tl;dr
Illinois is letting us down. The EU gets stuff wrong again it seems, but not as badly as the UK.
Market Snap
Market Wrap
As hostilities ramp up once again in the Middle East, risk assets remain remarkably complacent.
The US inflation print yesterday came in at 4.2%, driven largely by the price of oil and its knock-on effects. Hopefully the Chair of the Fed Kevin Warsh is smarter than other central bankers and recognises that increasing US interest rates will have no impact on the Mullahs’ nihilistic hold over the Strait of Hormuz.
Occasional Series – UK government spending
I am sure we all felt a surge of warmth on reading that £28 billion of taxpayers’ money has gone to “terrorists, gangsters, and hostile states”, during the period when the Conservative government was handing out free money in its immoral and illegal overreaction to Covid, in addition to the usual welfare/benefits fraud and misuse of foreign aid.
Putting someone who was married to a billionaire in charge of the country’s finances will likely prove more damaging in the long run than having human rights lawyers in charge of everything else.
I despair.
Occasional Series – Silvia Ziranek
An ever-present in the dance troupe for Alternative Miss World, I urge you all to make the time to visit Silvia’s latest exhibition:
https://www.moca.london/silviaziranek.html
It’s a cracker.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Illinois
Lawmakers in Illinois have decided to join the Crypto Hall of the Infamous.
We know that all taxes reduce activity in the targeted area, for politicians always point to heavy duties on goods like alcohol and tobacco as being to the benefit of the public’s health by lowering consumption. In a similar vein, raising employers’ NI reduces the number of jobs available.
Illinois’ 2027 budget contains a provision to charge 0.2% (soon to increase one can only assume) stamp duty tax on all crypto transactions conducted through a centralised cryptocurrency exchange, or any “digital asset broker”. Known as a “privilege tax” this measure is no more than an ill-disguised attempt to prevent the honest citizens of Illinois from participating in the crypto revolution. I note that this specific measure had bi-partisan support, suggesting that Illinois is even more illiberal than one might imagine.
Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – The EU & Russia
The EU has proposed banning transactions on eleven crypto platforms based in Russia, without sharing with us which platforms are being targeted.
Frankly, I am amazed that anyone would want to use a Russian-based crypto platform. Coinbase and Binance will cover almost all your needs, with maybe a little bit of KuCoin. DeFi will easily plug any remaining gaps.
Kaja Kallas, who has the rather grand job title of “EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission”, has made this startling claim:
“We are depriving Russia of the means to fund its war … (by a) ban on transactions of eleven crypto platforms”.
Be that as it may, estimates of EU imports from Russia in 2025 are of the order of $18bn for direct imports of gas, up to $2bn of Russian crude oil, and approximately $3bn of refined Russian oil sourced from third parties such as India which remains a key trading partner for genocidal Putin and his murderous henchmen. That is down from the rough estimates of maybe $100bn per annum prior to the Ukraine War, but every dollar of that over $20bn still funds the massacre of Ukrainian citizens.
Other imports from Russia to the EU, chiefly fertiliser, nickel, iron, steel, and other stuff totalled around $10bn in 2025, another even heftier chunk of money funding Putin’s expansionist fantasy.
I think Kallas is making the mistake of confusing the bad guys here.