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7th November 2021 > > BTC price prediction for fun.


tl;dr

I value BTC at $1.2mm per coin. Ridiculous or what?


Market Snap







Market Wrap

BTC keeps testing the psychologically important barrier of $60k. 1st November was the last time we dipped below that level, which frankly is an age in crypto terms, but only by $10.


Be nice if we never went there again, but that is just too hopeful at this stage.


Occasional Series – Paris Hilton and non-fungible tokens (NFTs)

Following the recent launch of her own NFT series, Paris has given us this pearl of wisdom in the debate surrounding legacy art and NFTs:


“There are paintings out there that are $100mm or more, but if you think about it, it’s really just canvas with paint.”


Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Pension fund adoption of BTC

Jefferies have again favoured BTC over gold in the asset allocation for their long-only US pension funds. The allocation is now 10% BTC up from 5% and 40% gold down from 45%.


You will recall from my absolutely ridiculous price prediction of £1.2mm per BTC in 2-4 years (see CCC additional report 5th February 2021) that one of the factors in my analysis was that BTC would make up 5% of all pension fund assets.


I see reports for the total size of all pension fund assets ranging from $33 TRILLION to $47 TRILLION for 2020. My analysis quoted $40 TRILLION, which is bang on the mid-point of this range, so we will stick with that for the time being.


Please bear in mind this is far from an exact science – I am just trying to explore possibilities and their potential impact.


The BTC market cap is currently $1.2 TRILLION. A 5% market share of pension assets would imply a price of $106k per BTC ignoring the market inefficiencies (that would drive the price higher) as highlighted by Larry recently.


A 10% market share would imply $212k per BTC, from pension fund investments alone.


We can argue about what the exact percentage allocation to BTC will be.


We can argue about the timescale, given the historical propensity for pension funds to be conservative in outlook.


But this process has already started, and with the freedoms given to individuals with 401k plans in the US and SIPPs here in the UK, this process of adoption by pension funds can only accelerate.


But if you are not convinced then ponder a little on this.


My personal view for the floor price of BTC is that the market cap at least matches that of gold. This view is predicated on BTC proving its value as a store of wealth, which it does every single day.


The new functionality coming our way for BTC – the rise of DeFi for BTC is a great example - makes it far more valuable than that.


But this is my floor.


Gold market cap at over $10 TRILLION is between eight- and nine-times the current BTC market cap. This puts my BTC floor price at around $500k or more per BTC, in the relatively near future.


I will not remotely consider selling any cryptos until we get to at least that price (NOT investment advice, simply for colour and discussion).

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