7th February 2025 > > Czechoslovakia & new spot ETFs.

tl;dr

Czechoslovakia is embracing the crypto revolution. New spot ETFs are (probably) heading our way, deepening retail and institutional adoption.

Market Snap

Market Wrap

BTC has been stuck below $100k for a whole week now, which is both disappointing and surprising in equal measure.

The monthly NFP (non-farms payroll) report is out later today, a number that is eagerly anticipated by all the trading desks. Its reliability is unquestionably compromised, based as it is on a small survey of a small number of firms on just two days during the month. Research shows that correlation between the reported NFP, actual employment numbers based on tax returns, and economic performance is non-existent. Still, the Fed pays it a great deal of attention, which is the only reason it matters to the financial community.

Betting markets are showing a massive discrepancy of over 300,000 new jobs compared to city forecasts of around 170,000. If the betting markets are correct (and they are almost always way more reliable than city scribblers) expect all risk assets to take a decent tumble.

Occasional Series – The UK is in a bind

Andrew Bailey, an even more incompetent Governor of the Bank of England than his predecessor Mark Carney – a feat no-one ever imagined to be even remotely possible – has actually said something that makes sense. I guess that on the balance of probabilities, that has to happen at least once in a 40-year career in bureaucracy, but it still came as a surprise to literally everyone. Bailey has pointed out that employing ever more people in the resource consuming public sector at the expense of the resource producing private sector, a deliberate policy embraced by the Conservative Party for years on end that no-one dared to challenge until now, does not help productivity nor growth. This is so obviously true, but it seems that many people do not yet get it, so this time Andrew, the CCC salutes you.

I would be delighted to be able to repeat that last sentiment at least once more before he retires, but it probably ain’t going to happen.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Czechoslovakia

Fresh from proposing that the Czech government adds BTC to its reserves, intensely annoying the perma-orange-tanned head of the ECB, Convicted Criminal Christine Lagarde – "I am confident that ... bitcoins (sic) won't enter the reserves of any of the central banks of the General Council" (yeah well, we will see about that) – a new law has been passed exempting Czech holders of cryptos from paying any taxes if those cryptos are held for three years or more.

That’s the kind of enlightened government policy that would do the UK the world of good for its productivity and growth prospects, but it ain’t going to happen.

…

Czechoslovakia has also fully incorporated MiCA, toppling a key plank of Europe’s Operation Choke Point 2.0, as explained by CKMA, the Czech Cryptocurrency Association:

“The new legislation introduces the right for cryptocurrency companies to access bank accounts if they pass the licensing process.”

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Crypto spot ETFS

The ambition of launching a range of spot crypto ETFs has moved a step closer to realisation.

Cboe has filed 19b-4 documents with the SEC for the listing and trading of four XRP ETFs sponsored by Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and WisdomTree. This starts the clock ticking on a 240-day window during which the SEC must approve or reject the application, so sometime before October. That sounds like a long way off, but the SEC might possibly move before then. The key constraint right now is the ongoing SEC action against Ripple Labs for breaching securities rules, legal action that commenced under the benighted leadership of Gensler. The day that legal case is withdrawn – as it surely will be – will be a great day to be holding XRP in one’s portfolio.

The SEC has also acknowledged the filing of S-1s (the first step in launching an ETF) for LTC and SOL. This is notable, for under the reign of terror of Gensler, the SEC flatly refused to recognise the very same applications, another example of desperately poor practice from him and his team.

None of this means that new spot ETFs will be approved, but once again we have concrete evidence of the sea-change in attitudes towards cryptos by the decision makers in the US.

And that is good for our bags.