4th May 2024 > > Taxes, snake oil, & analysis.

tl;dr

With that overnight rally, though I haven’t seen the actual quotes myself yet, clearly the naysayers have been piling in spouting their nonsense.

Market Snap

Occasional Series – UK

If anyone was in any doubt before now, then read the runes. After the next general election, the new government will have the largest majority ever.

There is one very obvious outcome. Wealth taxes will be levied immediately, and ramped up every year. It matters not whether you agree with wealth taxes or not. What matters is that you need to plan for this outcome, especially if you are asset-rich but cash-poor. In that scenario, you will be forced to sell assets to pay the wealth tax, but first you will have to give up 20% or more of those proceeds in capital gains tax, having already paid income tax before acquiring those assets.

Very careful and thoughtful financial planning is going to be required. On the upside, house prices are going to take a big tumble, giving an immediate productivity gain for the whole country.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – Technical analysis

On April 30th this graph was posted with this analysis:

“Once BTC breaks this MASSIVE weekly resistance, the bull market will really start …”

Given that 1.1mm people viewed that analysis with almost overwhelmingly supportive emojis, it must surely have some credence?

…

On May 1st this graph was posted:

The straight line and circles look eerily similar to the previous screen grab. The analysis for this second post was:

“So, was this it? Is the BTC bull market over now?”

With 836,000 views of almost overwhelmingly supportive emojis, this polar opposite view must surely have some credence?

…

If that leaves you a little confused, and that perhaps you are starting to question that TA is rather more subjective than some may have you believe, I have one more fact to reveal.

The analysis and commentary for both claimed outcomes were provided by the same person.

…

But it gets even better (worse?) than that.

On the 3rd May, the same graph, with the same squiggly lines, and the same commentator:

“Rejection fatal for BTC.”

This seller of snake oil runs a rotten business. People lose hard-earned cash because of this nonsense.

…

Rant over, moving on.

Curious Cryptos’ Commentary – This is more my style of analysis (h/t Alex2036)

As always, that is a log scale (of sorts) on the right, but I do know some people don’t immediately notice that crucial fact.

https://www.2036.io/